Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner (25-8 s/Dec 23): Larry's Wipeout Winners continue to live up to the moniker, in all sports. Join this 28-year vet on Sunday, as he features a CBB/NBA 'doubleheader' of Weekend Wipeout Winners. These classic releases are 25-8 (76%) going back to Dec 23 and here in college hoops, this total is destined to 'fly O-V-E-R!'
Game: Penn State at Wisconsin Feb 19 2012 4:00PM
Grade: Winner (100)
Reason: My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Penn St/Wisconsin Over at 4:00 ET.
Winning at home has become routine at Wisconsin since the arrival of Bo Ryan. That is, until this season. The Badgers have uncharacteristically lost FOUR times at the Kohl Center this season, the program's most since going 8-8 in 1997-98 season. This year’s Wisconsin team lacks the firepower, balance and depth of many recent Badger editions. However, as always, Ryan’s team knows how to play ‘D!’ Wisconsin leads the nation in points allowed (51.0 PPG), ranks 4th in defensive FG percentage (37.3%) and first in three-point percentage (26.6%). The last time these teams met was Jan 31 in Happy Valley, as the Badgers won 52-46 (holding Penn State to its lowest point total of the season). That avenged a Big 10 tourney loss last year, when Penn St beat Wisconsin 36-33 (you are reading that right!). So how come this total opened 110 1/2 and all the early betting has been on the ‘over?’ Here’s why. Penn St has been pretty much a “one man show” this year in Tim Frazier (18.4-5.0-6.3). However, I will note that fellow guard Marshall (10.4) has topped double digits in six straight games (12.3 per) but now the team's best big man, the 6-8 Billy Oliver (6.8-3.3), is out for the season with continued concussion issues. That leaves just the 6-9 Borovnjak (4.4-3.6), the 6-6 Travis (3.9-4.0) and the 6-8 Graham (3.5-3.6) to defend inside. As mentioned earlier, this year’s Wisconsin team is not up to recent editions but beating Penn State has become a habit for the Badgers. Wisconsin has won 14 straight home games in this series (last loss came back in 1995) and Badgers have never lost to the Nittany Lions at the Kohl Center. Note that Penn State is 1-9 SU in true road games this season, including 0-7 on the Big Ten road. However, look closely at the final scores in those games. FIVE of the seven have gone over the posted total and the two games which stayed ‘under,’ contests at Northwestern and Indiana, totaled 124 and 127 points, respectively (easily over the opening total in this game). In fact, Penn State's typical road game in Big Ten play this season has averaged 130.0 PPG, comfortably over this opening total. Why can’t Wisconsin get to 70 (or more) in this game, as only Northwestern (with 68) has failed to do so in Penn State’s first seven Big Ten road contests. I’m with the move. Go OVER!
Good luck... Larry