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NY Jets at Indianapolis
Sunday, January 24th, 3:00 ET
(Matchup)

The AFC Championship Game brings a matchup few expected as the fifth-seeded New York Jets take on the top-seeded Indianapolis Colts. BetUS Sportsbook has the Colts favored by 7.5-points while the total has been bet down to 39.

The Jets have played the “no respect” card for all its worth these last two weeks in pulling upsets over Cincinnati and San Diego, beating the spread by a combined 24.5 points. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez has proven to be no liability thus far, committing only one turnover. He already has the same number of playoff wins as does the legendary Joe Namath, whose oft-romanticized Super Bowl III “guaranteed win” over the Colts capped his only season with any postseason success. No team has ever won the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback.

New York has won seven of its last eight games after previously losing six of seven. They are on an 8-2 ATS run as underdogs. The catalysts have been simple and all too familiar for playoff success – defense and running the football. The team leads the NFL in rushing yards with 2,756. The defense has allowed only one opponent to score more than 14 points over the last eight games.

Ironically enough, that one opponent was the Colts in a 29-15 Jets win on December 27th with all 15 of those points scored in the first half. That of course was the game where Indianapolis memorably made an “organizational decision” to rest its starters for the second half and saw its NFL record 23-game regular season win streak come to a halt. The decision essentially breathed new life into New York’s season, giving them the opportunity to qualify for the playoffs.

QB Peyton Manning is just 8-8 SU all-time in the playoffs and the team just 8-14 ATS its last 22 as hosts, including 4-5 this season. However, it was the Indianapolis defense on display last Saturday night here against Baltimore as they held the Ravens to just three points and 270 total yards, while forcing four turnovers.

Like the Chargers last week, the Colts struggle to run the football. They are actually the only team in the league averaging fewer yards on the ground than does San Diego and rank dead last in the league in that category with less than 81 yards per game.

Against the run, Indianapolis ranked just 24th and gave up 450 yards on the ground the last two weeks of the regular season while resting starters. However, they held a good Baltimore attack in check last week, limiting them to just 87 yards.

Manning’s worst ever playoff loss came at the hands of the Jets back in the 2003 Wild Card Round, 41-0, as he was held to a playoff career-low 31.3 passer rating. The teams have split the last eight meetings SU over the last decade with the Jets holding a 5-3 ATS advantage.

Since the bye week was instituted, 73% of Super Bowl winners have been bye week teams.

Keep an eye on the kicking game. Jets' opposing kickers Shayne Graham and Nate Keading combined to go 0 for 5 on field goals the last two weeks. Indianapolis had the most statistically accurate kicker in NFL history, Adam Vinatieri, but chose to keep Matt Stover on the playoff roster instead.

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