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NFL Playoff Trends
 
NY Jets at San Diego
Sunday, January 17th, 4:40 ET
(Matchup)

The final game of the weekend is a real life “David vs. Goliath” battle between the San Diego Chargers and the New York Jets. This matchup opened with the biggest playoff spread yet with the Lightning Bolts laying as many as 9.5 points, but underdog money quickly poured in taking the line all the way down to -7. BetUS Sportsbook has the total at 42 points. Tease the game down to 3.5 and get an over/under line of 49.5.

San Diego enters the playoffs as the league’s hottest team, having won 11 straight games. No team is better offensively as they scored 20 or more points in every game this season. Under Head Coach Norv Turner, they are 9-2 ATS as home chalk of 7.5 to 14 points. They were 7-3-1 ATS down the stretch with two of those non-covers coming in games where they were double-digit chalk (one on the road, the other -15.5 vs. Oakland)

The Jets have covered six straight games as a road underdog of seven points or less. This includes last week’s upset in Cincinnati, the second consecutive week they defeated the Bengals. Both games were won in dominant fashion. New York ranks first in the league in rushing offense and total defense. That’s usually the formula to winning playoff games. However, their offense was held under 20 points this season seven different times, so it will be to their advantage to keep this game low-scoring.

Clearly, the game plan for the Chargers defense will be to put the game in the hands of Jets QB Mark Sanchez, who threw 20 interceptions during the regular season, but has gone turnover free the last three weeks. The rookie quarterback comes off one of the finest efforts of his career, completing 12 of 15 passes for 182 yards and a passer rating of 139.4.

San Diego has had difficulty stopping the run, allowing 117.8 yards per game on the ground. That said, the Jets worst rushing performance the last two years came against the Chargers when they ran for just 41 yards in a 49-29 loss last year. The Lightning Bolts have their own issues rushing the football, ranking next to last in the league in rushing offense.

The Chargers have a history of entering the playoffs on long winning streaks and not being successful. In 2006, they had won 10 straight and were one and done after losing at home to New England in this round. The following year, they were on an eight-game streak when they lost again to the Patriots, this time on the road, in the AFC Title Game. Last year, they had won five in a row before losing to eventual Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh.

Each of San Diego's last three playoff defeats have been against teams that were ranked in the top five in scoring defense, and it's 1-1 in such games this season. The Jets (10-7) are No. 1 in that category (14.8 points per game) and first in total defense (252.3 yards a contest).

QB Philip Rivers is the man. He ranked third in the NFL with a 104.4 passer rating, completing 65.2 percent of his attempts for 4,254 yards and 28 TDs while getting intercepted only nine times.

The key matchup in this game will be 6’5” Chargers WR Vincent Jackson vs. Jets shut-down corner Darrelle Revis, who finished second in the voting for NFL Defensive Player of the Year behind Charles Woodson.

The Jets upset the Chargers here in San Diego in the 2005 Wild Card Round, 20-17, as 6.5-point dogs.

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