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NFL Playoff Trends
 
Baltimore at Indianapolis
Saturday, January 16th, 8:15 ET
(Matchup)

The Indianapolis Colts have historically not performed well when coming off a bye week. In fact, they are 0-3 SU/ATS all-time in this spot during the Peyton Manning era, losing in 1999 (Tennessee), 2005 (Pittsburgh) and 2007 (San Diego). They’ll hope for reversal of fortunes Saturday night when they host the franchise hailing from the city they formerly inhabited, the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens have not fared well in the past vs. the Colts, losing seven straight (1-6 ATS) while averaging just 11.4 points per game. Unlike last weekend’s Wild Card matchups where all four games were regular season rematches, this is the only game on this week’s card where the teams previously met this year. Indy won that game in Baltimore, 17-15, favored by just one point.

However, you could have said the same thing about Baltimore’s previous fortunes vs. New England before they went out and upset the Patriots in dominating fashion last week. The 33-14 win was the team’s third playoff road win over the last two years as the Ravens are now 8-3 SU/ATS their last eleven postseason games.

The rushing attack, led by Ray Rice, has been very impressive the last five weeks, gaining 1081 yards overall (5.5 yards per carry). That includes 234 last week vs. New England with Rice running for an 83 yard touchdown on the game’s first offensive play from scrimmage. Baltimore has failed to rush for 100 yards as a team each of the last five times they’ve faced Indianapolis.

The Colts, like their top-seeded counterparts in the NFC, the Saints, did not finish the regular season particularly strong, losing back to back games after starting 14-0 SU. That was of course due to Head Coach Jim Caldwell resting his starters, allegedly an “organizational decision.” This looks pretty similar to the 2005 team that started 13-0 only to be “one and done” in the playoffs, thanks to eventual Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh.

Protecting Manning will be critical for Indianapolis to win this game. The QB has been sacked just three times in the last six meetings vs. Baltimore, none of which came in the earlier meeting where he threw for 299 yards on 22 of 31 passing. The four-time league MVP did throw two interceptions in the game, which was decided on the leg of former Raven Matt Stover, who kicked the eventual game winning field goal with just over seven minutes remaining.

Totals players may want to take note that the Colts have gone Under in all eight Saturday games they’ve played since 1992. BetUS Sportsbook currently has the total at 44 and Indianapolis favored by six points.

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