New England was a perfect 8-0 SU at home this season, and it’s good thing they were, as they won just two of eight road games and one of those came in London against the 3-13 Buccaneers. Their scoring differential was substantial here at Gillette Stadium, outscoring opponents on average of 31.2-12.9 (5-3 ATS). Keep in mind that they beat Tennessee 59-0 back on October 18th. All wins with the exception of one came by six or more points.

This is the most battle tested of all playoff teams with the Pats 14-3 SU and 8-8-1 ATS during the Bill Belichick era. Looking back further, they are 17-6 Under in playoff games since 1992. However, without Welker, and with an injured Tom Brady (broken ribs), things could be tough this time around as they look for a fourth Super Bowl title in 10 years.

Welker tore his knee last week vs. Houston, a game that New England really did not need to have, yet still almost won. The Pats may have a suitable replacement in Julian Edelman, a rookie who played quarterback at Kent State. He’ll of course team with Randy Moss to take on what is a very suspect Baltimore secondary that commits far too many pass interference penalties.

New England has never lost to Baltimore in five all-time meetings. They’ve covered the number in four of them, including all three here in Foxboro, winning by a total score of 71-7.

The Ravens did not qualify for the postseason until the final week of the regular season, beating Oakland on the road, 21-13 as ten-point favorites. Baltimore really cleaned up against the weaker foes on its schedule, going 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS vs. non-playoff teams compared to 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS against those teams that are still alive and playing.

They were also only 3-5 SU/ATS on the road, but could have won here in New England back on October 4th had it not been for a dropped Mark Clayton pass on a 4th down and short in the red zone in the game’s final minute. That was their first loss of the season after starting 3-0. They would go on to lose their next two games before alternating wins and losses in their final ten games with the exception of back to back wins late in the season over Detroit and Chicago by a combined score of 79-10.

QB Joe Flacco took a step back in his sophomore season. He did not have a single 300 yard passing day over the final 10 weeks and averaged just 173 yards through the air in the last five games. He faces a Patriots defense that had allowed just 27 points total in three games previous to the finale where Belichick rested starters Wilfork and Warren.

Baltimore is on a 7-4 SU/ATS run in the postseason, but is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS as a road dog of more than a field goal.

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