If the Denver Nuggets get upset by the Golden State Warriors tonight, it won’t be because the team didn’t have ample time to prepare. Tonight on TNT, they’ll be playing for the first time since Sunday’s 114-105 win over Boston and have opened as six-point road favorites.

The road favorite role has not treated the Nuggets well this season. They have failed to cover 12 of 16 times this season in this spot, including a 1-10 ATS mark when laying six or less at the betting window. They are, however, 3-0 ATS when playing with three or more days of rest this year and 11-1-1 ATS last 13.

A bigger story than betting is that the team will make the trip to Oakland without its Head Coach George Karl, who is being treated for throat cancer. This is the first game Karl will miss since making the announcement over a week ago.

Denver has literally alternated wins and losses, or should we say losses and wins, over its last eight games. At times, this looks like one of the best teams in the league. They are 11-1 against fellow division leaders, including wins over Dallas, Cleveland and Boston this month. However, they also lost by 10 points to Washington last Friday.

Golden State has also been alternating wins and losses recently, doing so over a six-game stretch. They pulled off a miraculous comeback Sunday night vs. Atlanta, rallying from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the Hawks 108-104 as five-point underdogs. However, on Tuesday, they went out and lost here to Philadelphia, 110-102. The team’s shooting percentage told the story in both games as they made 53.6% of their attempts against Atlanta, but only 37.9% against the Sixers.

This is game number four of a current five-game home stand for the Warriors, who own the second worst record in the Western Conference.

Just as leading scorer Monta Ellis (48 points last two games) returned from injury, Golden State lost second-leading scorer Corey Maggette to a hamstring injury. Denver comes into the game pretty much 100% healthy, although backup PG Ty Lawson is listed as questionable.

The Nuggets have beaten the Warriors five straight times, but have failed to cover the number in the previous two meetings, both of which were last month. They have had little difficulty scoring on the Warriors porous defense, totaling 381 points in three overall meetings this season. Golden State ranks last in the league in points allowed (110.7 PPG), so the total for tonight’s game is predictably high at 227.5. These teams have combined to go Over the total each of the last four times they’ve met.

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