San Francisco at Philadelphia
Thursday, July 28th, 7:05 ET
(matchup)
Update: Tim Lincecum will now start for the Giants tonight. He has a 3.17 ERA in seven regular season starts vs. the Phillies..
Ryan Vogelsong is expected to get the start tonight for visiting San Francisco as they play the rubber match against Philadelphia in a rematch of last year’s NLCS. The Giants were sizable underdogs in the first two games of this series, but the oddsmakers have been a bit slow posting betting odds for this matchup due to the uncertain status of the San Francisco pitching situation.
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The Giants should be pretty confident with Vogelsong on the mound. He has gone 8-1 with a 2.20 ERA in 16 starts this season with the team going 11-5 overall. Vogelsong has not lost a decision since May 26th, a span of 10 starts.
One cause for concern though is that Vogelsong is not nearly as good of an
MLB pick on the road. His last three starts have all come at home. The Giants lost 6-3 at Detroit in his last road start. His previous road start before that saw the team need to score 13 runs in a six-run win over the Cubs. Despite a 3.52 ERA (seven games), Vogelsong has actually lost a decision on the road this year, but his TSR is just 4-3.
The Giants offense has managed only two runs each of the last three games, but will be getting a big boost as the front office has acquired Carlo Beltran from the Mets. Beltran could be in the lineup as soon as tonight. He is hitting just .200 this season at Citizens Bank Park this season, however.
Overall, San Francisco has won 10 of its last 14 games.
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Last night was only Philadelphia’s second loss in its last eight games. They are 29-8 this season off of a loss and 9-1 if they have revenge for a loss as a home favorite of -150 or more.
It’s also been awhile since Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick lost a decision. You would have to go back to June 9th, a span of six starts.
Totals bettors will be conflicted in this matchup. Vogelsong has seen the Under cash in 12 of 16 starts while Over bettors are 6-2 in Kendrick starts.
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