New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Monday, July 18th, 7:10 ET
(matchup)
The Tampa Bay Rays seem to be at a major scheduling disadvantage Monday night when they host the division rival New York Yankees. Not only did Tampa Bay partake in the ESPN Sunday Night game yesterday, but the contest went 16 innings with the Rays losing 1-0 to the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees were done playing baseball at 4:00 ET on Sunday and the oddsmakers have them as -135 favorites on the betting line.
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Last night’s Red Sox-Rays game did not end until 1:44 ET in the AM and was the longest game in MLB betting since a 17 inning game between the Brewers and Angels back in ’04. Surprisingly, it was not the longest game of the 2011 MLB season as the Phillies and Mets played for over six hours in late May.
The game featured only eight hits, three by the Rays. Tampa Bay has lost nine of its last 15 to fall seven games behind Boston in the American League East, the most games they’ve been out of first place all year.
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The second place Yankees trail Boston by 1.5 games entering Monday. They come off a split of a four-game series with Toronto, winning both Saturday and Sunday. New York has won three of five overall vs. Tampa Bay this season, including 2 of 3 in the most recent series before the All Star Break. Both wins were of the one-run variety.
With the obvious scheduling advantage, the Yankees certainly look like a
good MLB pick. However, there are reasons to be scared of playing the Bronx Bombers on the money line. New York has been a huge money burner this year in night games, going 27-32, down 16.20 units. Starter AJ Burnett has a 9-17 team start record in road games the last two seasons and a 2-8 TSR if he allowed 2 or more home runs last outing (he did).
Burnett also has a 0-4 record with a 7.83 ERA his last five starts vs. the Rays, although the team did win earlier this year against Tampa Bay with him on the mound. He went 5.7 innings, allowing three runs on three hits in the 5-4 Yankees victory.
Tampa Bay will counter with Alex Cobb, who has looked very good of late. He has a 1.96 ERA his last three starts. Cobb should not expect much support from the bullpen tonight as eight different Rays’ relievers saw action in last night’s marathon loss.
Betting the Rays to go Under the total has been a wise MLB pick this season, particularly at home where they have gone Under in 31 of 44 games. Tonight’s over/under line is at 9 runs.
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