San Diego at LA Dodgers
Friday, April 29th, 10:10 PM
(matchup)
The San Diego Padres score about as much as A.C. Green did in the eighties. Therefore, they’ll need starter Clayton Richard to be at his best tonight as the club starts a weekend set with the division rival Dodgers. The oddsmakers have opened Los Angels as a -125 betting favorite, but as you’ll see that might be a good thing for the visitors.
Richard has been one of the better pitchers to play on in baseball betting, at least when priced as an underdog. Overall, San Diego has won 24 of the last 38 times the lefty has taken the mound as a dog, including a 16-9 record on the road. Even more impressive is Richard’s 9-0 team start record as a road dog of +125 or less. He has traditionally pitched well vs. the Dodgers, going 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA in six starts.
The only problem with the Padres, as it always has been, is their lack of offensive production. They are averaging just 2.8 runs per game this season and hitting a collective .208, which is just pathetic. They have been shutout a MLB-leading seven times and keep in mind that we are only 25 games into the season. They have lost eight of their last 10 overall and they scored two runs or less in all eight losses. In both wins, they scored five runs.
San Diego is averaging only 2.4 runs per game vs. lefties and will be facing a southpaw tonight in Ted Lilly, who is off a poor outing last Saturday. He allowed five runs and 11 hits in just 4.3 IP in his return to Wrigley Field in a 10-8 loss to the Cubs. He has been much better at home this season with a 3.08 ERA in two starts.
Lilly has seen the Under cash 14 of the last 18 times he has taken the baseball as a favorite. The Under has also cashed 17 of the last 21 times he’s started on five or six days rest. San Diego is 17-4 when playing with a day off and it’s not surprising to see these teams have combined to stay Under the total in 27 of the last 39 head to head meetings.
The Dodgers have hardly been gang busters at the plate, averaging only 3.3 runs per game here at Chavez Ravine. After losing the first two games of a three-game series to the Florida Marlins, LA avoided the sweep with a 5-4 win on Wednesday.
These teams already played one three-game set earlier this year at Petco Park with the Dodgers taking two of three.
