Kansas City at Cleveland
Thursday, April 28th, 7:05 PM
(matchup)
After dropping their first two games of the season by a combined 23-13 margin, the Cleveland Indians have won nine straight home games and now own the best record in the American League. On Thursday, they have opened as a $1.60 favorite on the betting line, which is the highest number we’ve seen all year for this team, as they try and finish off a three-game sweep of the division rival Kansas City Royals.
The Indians have dominated the first two games of this series, winning 9-4 and 7-2. The Royals’ own strong start is now looking like a thing of the past as they’ve lost five in a row since splitting a four-game set with Cleveland at home last week.
Cleveland jumped out to a 5-0 lead in the first inning last night and never looked back. The club is off to its best start since 2007 when it made it all the way to the American League Championship Series and was one game away from the World Series.
The last two years, the team has not been good and actually posted the second worst home record in all of baseball. However, this year has been a different story as they seek their first ten-game home winning streak since 1996. Since dropping the first two games of the season, Cleveland is hitting .295 as a team and averaging 6.1 runs per game here at Progressive Field.
Indians’ starters are doing their job as well, going 7-0 with a 2.02 ERA over the course of the nine-game home win streak. Interestingly, supposed ace Fausto Carmona has been the real “weak link” in the rotation thus far as he’s gone just 1-3 (2-3 team start record) and he’s off a lousy outing at Minnesota where he gave up six runs and seven hits in only five innings of work.
In two division starts thus far, Carmona has a horrible ERA of 18.00. He is 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA in his last seven starts vs. the Royals.
Despite those ugly numbers, totals players may want to take a look at playing this game Under. We say that because the Indians have gone Under in 11 of 12 games when Carmona starts as a home favorite.
Kansas City will counter with Kyle Davies, who has posted a 7.36 ERA in three road starts thus far. He did not receive a decision in the team’s 7-3 loss to the Indians on April 18th as he allowed only two runs in six innings. He struck out seven.
Davies has made baseball bettors some decent money when he starts as an underdog with a 24-22 TSR (+14.9 units).
