St. Petersburg Bowl

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by Tom Freese

Bowl season resumes Tuesday night with the Beef O’ Brady’s Bowl, played in St. Petersburg, Florida. This contest will be played between Florida International (8-4 SU/6-6 ATS) out of the Sun Belt and Marshall (6-6 SU/7-5 ATS) out of Conference USA. FIU is currently a four-point favorite at most online sportsbooks with the total at 48.5, which is down from the opening number.

Florida International has already posted its highest win total (8) for any single season in the history of the program. They won seven games a year ago, ending with a 34-32 upset of Toledo in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl. The Panthers were heavily bet in that bowl game as the public took them from two-point underdogs to 2.5-point favorites.

Looking at this year’s results, FIU lost only one game by more than five points all season. They won and covered their first three games of the season as well as the final three games, but were 0-6 ATS in between. They were 3-5 ATS as a favorite this year, including outright losses to LA Lafayette, Duke and at Western Kentucky.

This is only the second bowl appearance for FIU since the program came into existence in 2002. Head Coach Mario Cristobal took over after a 0-12 SU season in 2006 and the team went 1-11 his first year on the job. Surprisingly, the Panthers posted the best won-loss record of any College Football team in the state of Florida this season, better than Florida, Florida State and Miami!

Marshall qualified for the Beef O’ Brady’s bowl at a shaky 6-6, needing wins in the final two games against losing foes East Carolina and Memphis. Overall, the Thundering Herd won four of their final six. They needed overtime to get by East Carolina in the regular season finale, winning 34-27 as a one-point home favorite.

The Thundering Herd did not make the postseason last year with their previous bowl appearance also coming in the Little Caesar’s Bowl – a win over Ohio in 2009.

While Florida International should have a considerable edge in fan support at the game, the extra time off may not be beneficial. One key betting trend for this bowl matchup has the Panthers at 2-11 against the spread when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest.

If you are interested in specific players to watch in this matchup, take a look at FIU WR T.Y. Hilton and Marshall DE Vinny Curry. Hilton holds school records in just about every major offensive category possible and caught 64 passes this season for 950 yards and seven touchdowns. Curry, the Defensive Player of the Year in Conference USA, had a monster season with 11 sacks, 21 tackles for loss, six forced fumbles and even three blocked kicks!