Poinsettia Bowl

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by Matt Fargo

The San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl takes place Wednesday, December 21st with a matchup between conference champions. TCU, champions of the Mountain West Conference squares off against Louisiana Tech, champions of the Western Athletic Conference in what has the makings of a great matchup. Linesmakers have made TCU a 10.5-point favorite with the total set at 55.5.

Storylines

TCU comes in 10-2 and was once again close to a second consecutive undefeated regular season as it lost those two games by a combined nine points. The Horned Frogs lost their home opener against Baylor as the Bears kicked a game-winning field goal with just over a minute left. TCU lost its other game in overtime against SMU but went on to win its final seven games of the season, all but one coming by double-digits. The Horned Frogs are 5-6 ATS in their lined games with eight of those 11 games going over the total.

The Bulldogs were the surprise of the WAC as they were picked to finish in the middle of the pack but after losing their conference opener to Hawaii at the beginning of October, they went on to win their final seven games. It marks the first time Louisiana Tech has won seven consecutive games since they won ten straight during the 1974 campaign. And it could have been better. Three non-conference losses came against bowl teams Mississippi St., Southern Miss and Houston by a combined nine points.

TCU Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense

While defense is normally the talk of the Horned Frogs, this year it was the offense that took center stage. TCU finished the regular season ranked 28th in total offense, averaging 443.9 ypg and ninth in scoring offense, averaging 41.7 ppg. It is a very balanced attack that averages 210.2 ypg rushing and 233.8 ypg passing and these types of balanced offenses are sometimes the toughest to defend. The Horned Frogs have scored at least 27 points in each game this season while reaching the 31-point mark in 11 of 12 contests.

Louisiana Tech brings in a strong defense as it closed the regular season 55th overall and 34th in scoring, allowing 374.8 ypg and 22.5 ppg respectively. The Bulldogs are 25th in rushing defense, allowing just 122.1 ypg on 3.4 ypg. The passing numbers given up are not nearly as good as the Bulldogs yielded 252.7 ypg which is 96th but that is skewed because of teams playing catch-up. Louisiana Tech finished 27th in passing efficiency defense, which was tops in the WAC, and that is a much better indication.

Louisiana Tech Offense vs. TCU Defense

The Bulldogs offense is not as explosive as its counterpart as it is 49th in the country overall but they came on strong toward the end of the season by putting up over 400 total yards in four of their final five games after doing so just twice in their first seven games. The running game was inconsistent the entire season but running back Lennon Creer, who missed the final two games of the regular season with an ankle injury, is expected to return. The Bulldogs averaged 31.7 ppg during its seven-game winning streak.

TCU is ranked 32nd in total defense which is far from its top ranking it has had over the last couple years but it has played better of late. It has allowed 20 points or less in five of its seven games during its winning streak and that is a key number as it is 8-0 this season when allowing 20 points or less. The rushing defense is solid but the passing defense has been an issue as it is ranked 56th in yards allowed and 74th in passing efficiency defense. TCU allows a lofty 7.2 ypa including 8.2 ypa away from home.

Betting Trends

Louisiana Tech is 10-2 ATS this season including 7-0 ATS as an underdog.

Louisiana Tech is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games against teams completing 58 percent or more of their passes.

TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.

The Over is 7-0 in TCU's last seven games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.