2010 Cleveland Browns Future Wager

Free NFL Pick: Take Cleveland Over 5.5

The rebirth of the Cleveland Browns has spanned eleven seasons, seen a total of 13 different quarterbacks under center and resulted in just one playoff berth (and two winning seasons). So you’ll have to excuse the unusual enthusiasm from this beaten-down fan base as they enter the Mike Holmgren era in 2010. Granted, this isn’t likely to be a winning outfit this football season, but they could provide some solid underdog value after finishing 2009 on a 7-0 ATS run (won last four games SU).

The major offseason change in Cleveland, as it seems to be every year, came at quarterback. HC Eric Mangini never could decide last year between Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn, so both were jettisoned in favor of veteran Jake Delhomme and the versatile Seneca Wallace. Through the draft, Colt McCoy was added, although the former Texas standout has looked lousy in the preseason. Given Delhomme’s penchant for turning the ball over in his final year with Carolina, one has to wonder if the franchise simply made a lateral move under center.

The Browns current futures odds are one of the lowest in all of NFL betting at just 5.5 wins. In other words, the oddsmakers are just asking them to win one more game than they did last season. Making this task more difficult than it sounds is the division the Browns play in. The AFC North looks to be absolutely loaded in 2010 with the team that many considered to be the favorite to make the Super Bowl (Baltimore), the reigning division champ (Cincinnati) and a perennial playoff participant (Pittsburgh). Cleveland managed only one division win in ’09, finally beating Pittsburgh late in the season, but did go 4-2 ATS in those six division contests.

For those wagering on the Browns future win total, you’ll probably have a good idea whether or not they’ll get to six wins after Week 2. The team opens up with a road game at Tampa Bay, and then hosts a Kansas City team they beat last year. It is imperative that the Browns win at least one of those games, if not both. The non-division schedule brings the NFC South and the AFC East, the latter of which probably results in three losses. Another bad break is the fact that two of Cleveland’s most winnable games this season, against Jacksonville and Buffalo, come on the road.

The sad reality with this team is that it simply lacks an abundance of skill position players. Mohamed Massaquoi is their #1 receiver, a 2nd year player out of Georgia who had just 34 catches for 624 yards last season. Jerome Harrison finished the year strong at RB with 561 yards in the final three games, including a 286 yard day vs. the Chiefs in Week 15, but barely rushed for 300 yards in the first 14 weeks.

Defensively, the Browns are not a bad football team. Only three of their final eight opponents from last season scored more than 17 points. However, like the strong finish at the betting window, much of that can be attributed to a weak schedule.

This is a tough future wager to call. Very likely the Browns will win 5 or 6 games, meaning that you probably won’t know whether or not you’re holding a winning ticket until the season’s final week. Let’s take a chance and recommend the Over.

Free NFL Pick: Take Cleveland Over 5.5 Wins

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