by
Eddie Keen
Make sure you Check out Eddie Keen’s NCAA Tournament Selections this weekend if you’re looking to crush the books! Last week he cashed his First Round Game of the Year on Gonzaga and then came back with his Second Round Game of the Year on UCONN! Get on Board and Let the Winning Continue!
The Virginia Commonwealth Rams face off against the Florida State Seminoles in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. The Offshore Sportsbooks have opened up Florida State as a four point favorite and the line has already moved slightly, down to 3.5 points. Is the public right, or will VCU keep this a close matchup?
The Books have the total set at a very average 132 point number, which could easily go either way. Both teams average right around 70 points per game, which would send this total over the number. VCU has gone over the total in 13 of 18 tournament games over the last two seasons while Florida State has gone under the total in nine of ten tournament games. Florida State does have the strongest defense in the country and with VCU’s defensive press; we could see a total sliding right under the number.
VCU has been on fire in their last three matchups, winning outright as dogs in all three. They beat Purdue 94-76 as 9.5 point underdogs, crushed Georgetown 74-56 as 5.5 point favorites, and won the Play-In Game over USC 59-46 as four point dogs. VCU does have a perfect 7-0 ATS record in NCAA Tournament games but they are only 1-8 ATS when coming off back to back wins by 15 points or more over the last three seasons. They are coming off the best offensive performance of the season, hitting 57% from the floor against Purdue.
Florida State is moving into this matchup with tons of momentum at the betting window. They have covered the spread their last five games and the game prior to that winning run they pushed against Miami. They are coming off a huge win over Notre Dame, 71-57 as five point dogs, and also a win over Texas A&M 57-50 in a game that was listed a pick. Florida State has covered all but one game so far this season when playing as an underdog (7-1 ATS) but they are only 5-13 ATS after back to back non-conference games. The Seminoles have been very consistent, hitting right around 45% from the field in their last ten games, but they will need to step it up and have a big offensive performance if they’re looking to cover the spread against a strong VCU squad.
