by
Lenny Del Genio
Most people picked top seed Kansas to reach the Final Four in their bracket. If the Jayhawks end up making good on those projections, they will do so by not having to beat any team seeded higher than ninth in their region.
Things certainly have opened up for KU in the Southwest Region after beating Boston U and Illinois last weekend. All that stands in their way of another Final Four appearance are three double digit seeded teams. Up first is 12th seeded Richmond, winners of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tourney and nine games in a row both straight up and against the spread. The oddsmakers have installed the Jayhawks as big double digit favorites for this Sweet 16 matchup, opening the betting line at -10.5 points. The winner of this matchup will face the winner between 10 seed Florida State and 11 seed Virginia Commonwealth.
After failing to cover a huge 23.5 point number in their first tournament game, Kansas did cash as a smaller 8.5-point choice against nine seed Illinois on Sunday, winning 73-59. The game was close at halftime with the Jayhawks holding just a five-point lead, but the Morris twins combined to score 24 of the team’s next 29 overall points and KU avoided a second straight upset in the Round of 32. Last year, as a top seed, Kansas did not escape the first weekend, losing to Northern Iowa.
The Jayhawks also started sluggish in their first tournament game against 16 seed Boston University before coming on strong to defeat the Terriers by 19 points. After leading the nation in field goal percentage during the regular season, Kansas has continued to shoot well in the NCAA Tournament, making over 50% of its attempts in both games.
Overall, Bill Self’s team is 18-16 ATS at the betting window. The last time a team reached the Final Four without beating a team seeded higher than ninth in its bracket was Michigan State in 2001. The Spartans would go on to lose by 19 points to Arizona that year in the National Semifinal round.
Richmond, meanwhile, has been a great ‘play on’ team for college hoops bettors. The Spiders are 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine games and 21-12 ATS for the year. They are a perfect 8-0 ATS as a neutral court underdog the last two seasons as well.
Like Kansas, Richmond has also benefited from the volatile nature and upset filled Southwest bracket. They played 13th seeded Cinderella team Morehead State in the Round of 32 and didn’t have much trouble beating the Eagles 65-48 as a small 4.5-point favorite. In the Round of 64, the Spiders pulled off the traditional 12 seed over a 5 seed upset, beating always overrated Vanderbilt 69-66 despite a foul-filled finish.
The Spiders are an awesome defensive team, allowing just 60.8 PPG. They have held seven of their last nine opponents under 60 points, although Vandy did shoot better than 50% against them, a rarity considering opponents are shooting just 40% against Richmond this season. Morehead State was an atrocious 18 of 50 from the field, including 2 of 15 on three-point attempts.
No team in NCAA Tournament history has produced more straight up wins as a 12 seed or lower than has Richmond with the total now at eight. They are one of only four teams to ever win a NCAA Tournament game as a 15 seed. However, this will be the school’s first Sweet 16 appearance since 1988. It is the fourth consecutive season we have seen a 12 seed advance to the second weekend and for you trivia buffs, we’ll let you know that 12 seeds are now 8-1 SU when they face 13 seeds in the Round of 32.
