by
Eddie Keen
Eleven seed Marquette faces off against second seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. The books have opened up North Carolina as a five point favorite and the line has moved just slightly down to 4.5 points. North Carolina (28-7 SU) does have a much stronger straight up record then Marquette (22-14), but what really matters to us is their records at the betting window. Marquette is six games over .500 (18-12) while North Carolina has been slacking as they are one game under .500 (15-16 ATS). With that said, is this just another line North Carolina won’t be able to cover, or is this going to be a blowout?
What an excellent effort from Marquette, who has made it all the way to the Sweet 16 by playing some great basketball. They are coming into this matchup against North Carolina off back to back outright dog wins. They had a double digit cover over Xavier, winning 66-55 with the game listed a pick at the books and on Sunday they stole the win from Syracuse 66-62 as 4.5 point underdogs. Marquette is 17-5 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons and is 4-1 ATS as a neutral court underdog this season. Marquette could possibly get the cover in this matchup, but they will need to come with their “A” game, since North Carolina is not a team that they will be able to breeze by.
North Carolina has not covered the spread in either of their NCAA Tournament games. The Tar Heels seem to be in some trouble at the books as they have not covered the spread in their last five games. They beat Long Island to start the tournament, but failed to cover the huge 18.5 point spread. They also beat Washington but failed to cover the 3.5 points they were laying as they only won by three points (86-83). Could this be the last you see of North Carolina in the NCAA Tournament or will they snap out of this slump and get a huge cover over Marquette?
