Free NFL Pick: Buccaneers-Jets Week 1

Football betting, betting trends, NFL Handicappers, NFL football betting, Free Football picks, guaranteed NFL football picks, football handicapping, free nfl football picks 7/4/2013
by Brad S.

A tumultuous offseason for the New York Jets will be in the rearview mirror on September 8 as the team hosts the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an inter-conference matchup in the Meadowlands, making it something of a homecoming for Bucs head coach (and former Rutgers HC) Greg Schiano.

Jets head coach Rex Ryan’s previous predictions of the Super Bowl have been scaled down after two straight seasons of not even reaching the postseason. The football handicapping world has taken notice of that fact by installing Tampa Bay as a -2.5 road favorite, with a point total of 41.

That football betting designation in favor of the visitors from Florida ignores some key items in favor of New York. The last four times the Jets have been a home underdog of a field goal or less, they have both covered the spread and won outright. Also, during the four years of the Ryan era, the Jets have covered six of the nine games that preceded a matchup with the New England Patriots (the Week 2 opponent), including four of five as an underdog.

Since 2008, the Buccaneers have made Over bettors happy when on the road in September, with five of the seven matchups during that period going above the total. That number includes three of the last five Week 1 clashes, and is good bookend to the other football handicapping fact that shows that as a road favorite since 2007, Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS.

Yet another testament to the Over in this game would be the six of nine games that have gone past the listed number the week before the Bucs take on the New Orleans Saints, as the team does the following week. The football betting winning percentage is even higher when that preceding game is away from Raymond James Stadium, with four of five games cashing in favor of the Over.

One final bit of football handicapping research only adds to the heavy weight for this free NFL pick in favor of the Over. Since 2008, when any Week 1 NFL total has spanned from 40-45 and the spread is a field goal or less either way, the Over has won eight of 10 times.

The bluster of Ryan has not gotten the Jets to the franchise’s second Super Bowl appearance, but it should be enough from a football betting perspective in this opening matchup against an opponent that is likely a few years away from contention itself. Thus, the call on this free NFL pick is to take the “Jets” at +2.5 and the “Over” of 41.

Week 1 NFL Free Pick: Take New York Jets +2.5 and the Jets-Buccaneers Over 41

Good Luck,

Brad S. - Vegas Experts

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