MLB: 2011 Regular Season Recap + Playoffs Preview
by Tom Freese
With the MLB regular season now complete, I wanted to take a minute and review who the biggest money making and money losing pitchers and teams were this year as well as offer a quick playoff preview for each of the four divisional series
Biggest Money Making Pitchers
1. Ian Kennedy (25-8 TSR, +17.7 units) - By far the most profitable pitcher to bet on in the 2011 MLB season was Ian Kennedy of the Diamondbacks. He was six units higher than the #2 pitcher. Like the other two pitchers on this list, Kennedy will be pitching in the postseason as Arizona takes on Milwaukee in the NLDS. The team has won his last seven starts overall, but beware that he had a 14-1 TSR vs. the NL West, a division that sent no other teams to the postseason. Kennedy will get the ball in Game 1 against the Brew Crew
2. Zach Greinke (20-7 TSR, +11.7 Units) – I am somewhat surprised that Milwaukee’s Greinke is not getting the start opposite Kennedy in Game 1 of the NLDS. Greinke was literally unbeatable this year at Miller Park with a flawless 15-0 team start record. I would be stunned if he did not get the start in Game 2.
3. Justin Verlander (25-9 TSR, +11.4 Units) – For my money, Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball and should be named American League MVP. The Tigers have won 12 starts in a row made by Verlander before they lost as a huge -255 favorite this past weekend vs. Baltimore. (Verlander did not factor into the decision.) Verlander will get the start in Game 1 of the ALDS vs. the Yankees and CC Sabathia and will be an underdog. He was an underdog only one time during the regular season and the team lost 4-3 to Boston and Josh Beckett. Since May 19th, Detroit is 21-3 in games Verlander starts.
Biggest Money Losing Pitchers
1. Chris Carpenter (15-18 TSR, -13.0 Units) - Carpenter is the only pitcher I want to touch on here because he will be the only one pitching in the postseason. Carpenter was a disaster at the betting window this season with a 4-12 TSR as a favorite of -150 or more on the money line and that includes a win in the regular season finale at Houston. Incredibly, before that win, Carpenter had an 0-8 team start record as a favorite of -175 to -250 on the money line. Pitching against the Phillies in the NLDS, you can bet Carpenter will not be a favorite.
2. Ubaldo Jimenez (13-19 TSR, -12.6 units)– Jimenez never looked like the pitcher who started 15-1 last year for the Colorado Rockies and was traded mid-season to Cleveland where he was a disappointment there as well.
3. Paul Maholm (7-19 TSR, -12.0 Units) – The Pirates completely fell off after the All Star Break.
Biggest Money Making Teams
1. Arizona (94-68, +26.90 Units) – the Diamondbacks were the only true surprise division winner in baseball this year. The market was slow to adjust.
2. Milwaukee (96-66, +20.90 Units) – the Brew Crew were dominant at home this season, going 57-24 at Miller Park. When they are -150 or higher on the money line there, they are almost unbeatable at 34-6. Of course, it will be the two most profitable teams in baseball with the two most profitable pitchers in baseball meeting in the NLDS with Milwaukee vs. Arizona.
3. Detroit (95-67, +18.45 Units) – It’s no coincidence that the three most profitable teams in baseball each have one of the three most profitable pitchers in MLB.
Biggest Money Losing Teams
1. Houston (56-106, -33.96 Units) – the Astros were atrocious this year. They were the only 100 loss team in MLB. Words can’t properly explain how bad this team was this year.
2. Colorado (73-89, -29.45 Units) – after a hot start, the Rockies torched their backers, losing as big favorites many times. The other two teams on this list had the two worst records in baseball, so that shows how overvalued Colorado was.
3. Minnesota (63-99, -24.55 Units) – this was a shocker. The Twins very narrowly missed becoming the first team to go from division champs to 100 losses in one year in nearly a century.
Playoff Previews
Tampa Bay (+145) vs. Texas (-165)
How did the Rays even get to the playoffs? They trailed the Red Sox by nine games the first week of September before pulling off an incredible comeback, culminating in a thrilling win over the Yankees (while Boston lost three minutes earlier) on the season’s final day. The Rangers are the reigning AL Champs and won the regular season series 5-4. Six of those games were in Tampa and here Texas will have home field advantage. These teams met in the ALDS last season with Texas taking the series in five games. How much can the Rays have left in the tank?
Detroit (+125) vs. NY Yankees (-145)
I feel Game 1 will go a long way in determining the outcome of this series. That’s because both teams will send out their respective aces – Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia – each team’s best pitcher by far. The Tigers took the season series 4-3, but the teams have not met since May. Winner here will be the favorite to win the ALCS, no matter who wins the other series.
St. Louis vs. Philadelphia
The Phillies are the prohibitive favorite, not only to win this series, but the NL pennant. That being said, they did not play particularly well down the stretch, losing eight straight before sweeping the Braves and knocking them out of the playoffs. St. Louis reaped the benefits of that Phillies sweep as they beat Houston on the final day of the regular season and nabbed the Wild Card.
Arizona vs. Milwaukee
This series isn’t going to get much attention, but as mentioned above these were the two most profitable teams to bet on during the regular season and have the two most profitable pitchers in baseball. If Arizona “steals” one of the first two games in Milwaukee, they have a great shot at “upsetting” the Brew Crew.
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