Early Season Football: Staying the Course (Perseverance)
by Scott Rickenbach
As a handicapper, it frustrates me beyond belief when the ball is not bouncing my way. What clients have to understand is that the bad beats do even out in the long run. But, so far this season, all my wins have come easy and many of my losses have been tight, painful defeats. Any bettor, any client, will enjoy reading what is outlined below because we’ve all experienced runs like this in the past. The key to remember here is that runs like this show when a capper is “in the zone” even if his results don’t yet show it due to being on the “bad beat side” of every close game. Read on and, keep in mind, this is a perfect example of why “staying the course” is so important in sports betting:
Sept 1st WIN: OVER in Wisconsin - covers by 12 points
Sept 2nd LOSS: UNDER in Baylor – my only truly bad play this season, yes, very ugly
Sept 3rd LOSS: UCLA – the 3 point dog loses by 4, missed a short FG and extra point
Sept 3rd WIN: OVER in N. Ill – covers by 20+ points
Sept 4th WIN: TX A&M – covers by 16 points
Sept 5th LOSS: MIAMI – a 4 point dog loses by 8 after a pick six with just seconds left
Sept 8th LOSS: NFL (N.O.) – a 4 pt dog lost by 8, had ball on goal-line in final seconds
Sept 8th WIN: OK ST – 14 point favorite won by 23 points
Sept 9th LOSS: LVL – lost despite a 24-9 edge in first downs and 446-293 edge in yards
As you can see from the above, I am off to a 4-5 start in football that easily could be 8-1. But, taking it a step further, in all reality, let’s say it should be 6-3. The fact is that half of the close games should always end up going your way. That’s just how things “even out” in the long run. That said, look again at the above ledger of plays and you will see that all 4 plays were dominating easy wins. As for the five losses, only one was a bad play. The other 4 were all games that easily could (and arguably should) have gone my way. With any luck, just going 2-2 on close games, I would already be 6-3 on the season.
The above ledger shows why “staying the course” is so important. When one is 4-5 on regular season football plays early in the year, and especially when all 4 wins have come easy and 4 of the 5 losses were questionable, one certainly should not be pushing the panic button. The bad beats will start to turn and go in that capper’s favor and, likewise, the big wins by big margins will keep coming as well. That’s a sign of a capper that is “in the zone” and a sign of a capper who easily could be 8-1 in early season action and, arguably, should be no worse than 6-3 on the season.
Pressing onward and full of perseverance…that’s what handicapping and sports betting are all about. Keep a level head and stay the course. The ball will start to bounce our way on the tight games and that’s certainly when it’s fun to be “along for the ride”. Thanks for checking in here and best of luck always. Looking forward to a huge football season! – Scott Rickenbach
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