Preseason NFL: Sharps Are In The Game!
by Scott Rickenbach
Football Season arrives again starting August 11th. Yes, you read that right, it’s not the start of the regular season but don’t make the mistake of ignoring preseason football. There are plenty of good wagering opportunities that are a part of the preseason and make it a favorite part of the football schedule for many top sports handicappers.
I have enjoyed my fair share of successes in the Preseason and this has been especially true with top plays. Yet, many times I am asked how one can possibly bet on preseason football and how one can possibly find “wagering edges”. For a little insight into why top handicappers and sharp bettors are indeed involved with Preseason NFL, please read on.
Much of the content in this article was in prior seasons’ articles but it certainly bears repeating as an important reminder about the value of Preseason Football for your bankroll. In this article we will be taking a look at 4 key areas in preseason wagering: Information, Parity, Money Management, Advance Preparation.
Information – It is certainly true that information is a key part of handicapping any sport at any time in the season. However, the importance of information carries more weight in handicapping the NFL Preseason than perhaps any other sport and any other season. The reason for this is because coaches will actually say who they are playing in a particular game and for how long. They generally are not so much concerned with winning the game as they are with simply finding out everything they can about every single player up and down their roster. Therefore, any information you obtain about players and even game plans during preseason is generally as solid as you will ever see. Understanding the Quarterback Rotations and situations (is there a battle for the #1 QB spot, etc?) is another key to success. If the proper time is taken to research what each team’s coaching staff is saying to the media in the days leading up to the game, your investment of time can pay off in the form of big wins on game day.
Parity – It is a common belief that there is a lot of parity in today’s NFL and that can certainly help one to find value when analyzing the preseason games. If you uncover that a certain team is hungrier or has extra motivation or has a lot of battles going on for starting spots or roster spots, you’ve often uncovered that little extra incentive that will lead to a point spread win. Don’t ever underestimate how well a bad team can perform in preseason. In many past seasons, we’ve all witness poor teams that have had great pre-seasons before then showing their true level of play in the regular season. Also, many times the most talented teams in the league are the ones that struggle in preseason against the spread. What do they have to prove? That brings us to the next point about parity: Coaching. If a team has underachieved in the past and now has a new coach you can generally expect he will want to come in and win the favor of the fans and management by getting wins in preseason. The new coach (especially a young one or one who is involved with a poor team that needs wins immediately) is much more likely to put a little extra incentive on game planning than a veteran coach on a better team with nothing to prove in August! With most teams so close in talent level (again…it’s the parity of the NFL); this extra coaching edge can carry a lot of weight in August!
Money Management – The goal of wagering on preseason football is to build that bankroll for the regular season which will be here very soon with the kickoff of College Football on September 1st. That said, by applying the right techniques and principles one should turn a profit more often than not in the preseason. However, it is a long football season and you don’t want to blow your bankroll during a losing run in August, you want to enhance your bankroll so you can enjoy a profitable and enjoyable football season all the way through the Super Bowl. This money management section is merely a reminder that sports wagering can be very streaky and it is always best to have a good plan in place with your bankroll prior to the start of the season. Pace yourself and never play amounts that are too high of a percentage of your bankroll. You want to stay “in the game” and not risk being on the edge of being “kicked out of the game” on a weekly basis!
Advance Preparation – In articles throughout the month of August I will be putting out additional information about the upcoming NFL season and what to expect from each of the teams. By digging a little deeper into the QB rotations for Preseason and coaching changes and personnel changes I should be able to find some nice tidbits for August profits. The “take away” from the upcoming articles is that preparation in advance is a key to successful handicapping. Identifying teams to watch ahead of time will certainly help when the lines come out week to week throughout the season! Without a doubt, you can more readily find value on the card when you have already done your “home work”. More on this is on the way in the coming weeks so please do stay tuned.
Thank you and best of luck always – Scott Rickenbach
Get NFL Preseason picks from Scott Rickenbach and expert MLB picks at
Vegas Experts.
