One of the biggest mistakes made in handicapping is to over-react to one result. Seeing one team do well in one game and then having that result ingrained in one's brain is a common mistake. Another common mistake is to simply scoreboard watch. Trying to gauge the true "bet-worthiness" of teams simply by watching the scoreboard can quickly lead a capper and/or bettor down the wrong path in a hurry. That's because so many things can happen over the course of a game that produce results that truly are not properly measured on the scoreboard.

On Monday the 27th of September I was personally dealt a true example of why "Capping the Capping" is such an important process to engage in. I played the over in the Monday night football game featuring Chicago hosting the Packers. With light winds, comfortable temperatures, and two very capable quarterbacks (as well as two suspect rushing attacks), I expected plenty of passing. I got what I expected as both teams moved the ball quite well and also relied heavily on their passing attack. For the game, there were only five punts. Of course that is reflective of the fact that both teams moved the ball well and this was not a "3 and out" type game where punts are abundant.

This game ended up falling 9 points short of the total and, in the end, a loss is a loss. However, I was happy with my handicap of this game. I was done in by wasted opportunities in the red zone as well as key turnovers. Now, the fact remains, I certainly have won some games I didn't deserve to win. But I also most certainly have lost some games I didn't necessarily deserve to lose. The key is to understand each result you are dealt throughout each day, week, month, season, and year. It will make you a sharper handicapper/bettor as time goes on. It's part of the entire process as your own growth in handicapping can help you improve in your true knowledge of teams and concepts. If the idea is right but the result is wrong...one should not lose sight of that. Likewise, if the capping was wrong but the result was right, one also certainly needs to file that away in the "memory bank" as well.

While all of this may seem like common knowledge, the fact is that even the most experienced of handicappers and bettors are guilty of looking past all of this at times. In closing, I will leave you with a perfect example of why one shouldn't just scoreboard watch. The Seattle Seahawks are 2-1 this season. However, in week one they scored 31 points on just 242 yards of offense. In week two (their lone loss) they scored just 14 points. In week three (I was burned in this game as I had the under), the Hawks "exploded" for 27 points on just 13 first downs. What happened? Two kickoff returns for touchdowns for Seattle in a crazy second half! That burned me with my under play but it also told me something else. The perception of the Seahawks in the betting markets could certainly be over inflated and I will be seeking the proper spot to take advantage sooner rather than later! As always, thanks for checking in here and best of luck always from Scott Rickenbach.

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