If you’ve been around sports gaming for any length of time you’ve probably heard of the significance of 52.4% in the betting world. That is the percentage in sports such as football and basketball that one must hit just to break even after juice. Why do we lose money in football and basketball even if we cash in 51% or 52% of our plays? It’s because the house charges, on average, 10 cents on every dollar of a losing wager. That is, of course, what helps provide books with a solid operating margin on every wager as long as they keep the action roughly equal on each side of the game. So, in basketball and football you have to lay $1100 to win $1000 or $110 to win $100 no matter if you’re wagering on the side or the total. So you have to win 11 times for every 10 losses just to break even. 11/21 =52.4% and that’s where this important percentage comes from.

Now let’s talk about money line sports as this is where it becomes especially crucial to understand the importance of streaks and the corresponding impact that those streaks have on your bankroll. Whether you are wagering on your own or investing in handicapper selections, understanding the true value of a streak is paramount to having success in the long run. The money line sports of hockey and baseball are a much different wagering scenario than the “point spread sports” of basketball and football. While laying odds of 11 to win 10 is common when wagering against the spread, the money line sports involve much more in the way of money management on individual plays. That’s because the big favorites can be awfully enticing to many bettors but, keep in mind, the losses come with a steep price.

If you’re looking at your own streak or a capper’s streak in money line sports, keep in mind the following important numbers:

Average play of -125 on the money line means the break even point is 55.6%.
Average play of -150 on the money line means the break even point is 60.0%.
Average play of -175 on the money line means the break even point is 63.6%.
Average play of -200 on the money line means the break even point is 66.7%.
Average play of -300 on the money line means the break even point is 75.0%.

Average play of +125 on the money line means the break even point is just 44.4%
Average play of +150 on the money line means the break even point is only 40.0%.

In these last two examples you can see the power of underdogs!

For example, let’s talk about 60% streaks. In football and basketball a 60% streak or, better yet, season record, is rock solid. It’s making significant money. However, in baseball, that same 60% streak makes ZERO if the average lay amount of the bettor or handicapper’s plays is a -150. This is why we so often talk about the value of the underdogs, totals, and small favorites in betting on money line sports. It’s so important to understand what types of plays comprise a streak in the money line sports. Keep this in mind all summer long as baseball is the only sport that is in its regular season between the months of May and August. In other words, one needs to be very cautious when giving consideration to streaks when they involve bigger favorites that can skew the units in a hurry! They say beauty is in the eye of the beholder and we believe value is too! If you really want value…make sure you have a clear picture of what you’re looking at when you evaluate streaks in the money line sports! Best of luck always – Scott Rickenbach

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