After watching the Vikings pile up 475 yards against the Saints in the NFC Championship Game and still lose, my thoughts turned to what has happened in past Super Bowls after a team is outgained but still makes it to the big game. Keep in mind, New Orleans only gained 257 yards in the NFC Championship Game. That's right, the Saints scored 31 points on just 257 yards in a game that truly burned up those of us that had tickets on the under 54. That said; one has to be curious how a team like the Saints would then fare in the Super Bowl. Surprisingly, a team that was outgained in the conference championship game has historically fared well in the Super Bowl. These teams are 4-2 ATS in the Super Bowl. The fact that the Saints are a good size dog also makes them attractive in this spot. However, one of these teams was Pittsburgh in '95 when they were a big dog of +13.5 and lost by 10. Of course, a ten point loss here will not do Saints backers any good.

What about the experience factor here? The Saints are making their first ever super bowl appearance while the Colts just won the Super Bowl three years ago. That should be a huge edge for Indianapolis here, right? Actually, this is similar to last year's Super Bowl. Pittsburgh was playing for the 2nd time within 3 years while Arizona was playing for the first time ever. Even though the Steelers won the game, the Cardinals got the cover. Surprisingly, over the last 15 years when a team is back in the Super Bowl within a three year period they have not fared well. Teams in this situation have only gotten the cash once in eight occurrences over the past 15 Super Bowls. However, even with the Cardinals covering against the Steelers in last year's Super Bowl, teams playing in their first Super Bowl and facing a team with SB experience have covered just 6 of 17 such instances.

As for this year's total in the Super Bowl, it is interesting to note the huge number posted on this game. Of course both teams’ struggles to stop the pass last week could have something to do with that. The Saints gave up 310 passing yards to the Vikings and the Colts allowed over 300 yards through the air against the Jets. More defensive struggles could be on tap here considering Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are the "pilots" in this one. However, the last six times a Super Bowl total has been at least 50 points, four of those six games stayed under the total. However, in Super Bowl history there has been 14 times where the losing team scored at least 19 points. 11 of those 14 games went over the total.

Can either the Colts or Saints be held below 19 here? In their last 17 games (including two playoff games) the Colts have been held under 19 points just four times. As for the Saints, in 18 games, including two playoff games, they've been held under 19 points just three times. Before last year's over however, the past 4 Super Bowls had all stayed under. A lot of offensive talent on these teams but the game is being played on a natural grass surface and the total is a big one and likely to end up being the biggest closing number on a total in Super Bowl history.

Consider all of the above just an "appetizer" or some "food for thought" as the main course is coming Sunday February 7th so be sure to check back in for that and "tune in" for the details. Thanks and best of luck in all your sports gaming - Scott Rickenbach

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