College Hoops: Early Season Point Spread Value (Part 1)
by Scott Rickenbach

With the College Hoops Season now getting underway it’s time to take a quick look at some teams that could offer some solid point spread value this season. The analysis here will be concise as the goal is to quickly touch on teams from the big conferences that have potential to offer substantial value this season. We’ll start with the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, and Big Twelve in this segment and then follow with “round two” in our next segment!
ACC: Maryland – The Terrapins made a strong run in the second half of last season and then made it to the second round of the tourney. They will carry some momentum from their solid run last right season right into this season. With Greivis Vasquez, plus three other starters, returning and with coach Gary Williams continuing to get the most out of this program, look for some value from the Terps early this season.
ACC: Virginia – After their worst season in 42 years, the Cavaliers could improve a lot quicker than people think. It’s not because of the personnel; it’s because of coach Tony Bennett. He comes from Washington State where he quickly turned around the Cougars in amazing fashion. It also helps that he hired away an assistant, Ritchie McKay, from Liberty. We’re not saying that the Cavs are going to have a huge year from the standpoint of straight-up wins but, in terms of winning against the spread, the defense-first, crash the boards philosophy of coach Bennett could go a long way toward improvement in Charlottesville this season.
Big East: Cincinnati – Playing in the Big East is tough and the Bearcats were only 8-10 straight-up in conference games last season. However, Cincinnati returns four starters from last season’s team, has improved defense under coach Mick Cronin, and they appear to be a much deeper team this season with some new players adding to an already talented and solid core group.
Big Ten: Indiana – Because of an ugly 6-25 straight-up record last season we should continue to see some big spreads available to us when backing the Hoosiers. That said, this team is going to provide some point spread value. The Hoosiers have a solid recruiting class on board, the returning players are in the second year of Tom Crean’s systems and the Hoosiers finally have the length, athleticism, and size to at least be more competitive in the Big Ten. That means value when playing against other programs that may underestimate a Hoosiers team that was 6-25 last season.
Big Twelve: Kansas State – Four starters return for the Wildcats and, overall, five of Kansas State’s top six players are back from last season’s team. Considering the Wildcats were awful against the spread last season that means we should see some great line value with Kansas State this season. They may be undervalued because of last season’s ATS performance but the Wildcats not only have all the key pieces back this season, they also add an excellent recruiting class. A strong backcourt also makes them attractive as guard play is so critical to a team’s success.
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