Anatomy of a Bad Beat: The Human Element
by Scott Rickenbach
The 2009 Major League Baseball betting season is here, and if you like winning MLB Picks, then
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the 2009 World Series.
As a sports handicapper, it’s important for me to remain “in sync” with my clients. I believe “The Human Element” helps sports bettors to better understand their handicappers. Just like their clients, handicappers truly do “live and die” with their own picks. This is especially true of the bigger ones. That said, after just suffering one of the worst “big game” beats in recent memory, I knew this was absolutely the right time to hammer away at the keyboard!
It helps sports bettors and their handicappers to better understand each other when they are on the same “wavelength”. To be “tuned in” to the same “channel” is a reality made possible for sports bettors when they truly look at how a big game can play out and how frustrating it can be for capper and bettor alike!
On Sunday, August 23rd, 2009 I had a big play on the over in St Louis. I personally know some were able to get 8.5 on the game and, even though the majority got a 9, WE still had no business not winning this play. A 5-2 final, and a “big game” loss for us came after one of the most painful sequences of events I’ve ever witnessed with an “over” play in the bases.
Below is the sequence and then, further below, a recap that shows just how important my clients are to me and just how focused I am on the results so that we can, in the long run, enjoy the fruits of our labor. First off, the big game “sequence”:
Top of the First STL: Bases loaded, NO outs. 4-5-6 hitters due up.
How many do the Cards plate in the inning? ZERO!
Bottom of the First SDG: Two on, NO outs. 3-4-5 hitters due up. How many do the Padres plate in the inning? ZERO!
Top of the Third STL: Bases loaded, NO outs. 1-2-3 hitters due up.
How many do the Cards plate in the inning? ZERO!
Bottom of the Sixth SDG: One run is in but, still, with NO outs there are two men on base and plenty of opportunity for a HUGE inning. Instead, from that point on, how many runs do the Padres get in the inning? ZERO!
Top of the Seventh STL: Bases loaded, just one out. How many do the Cardinals plate in the inning? ZERO!
Top of the Ninth STL: Two on, just one out. How many do the Cards put on the board in this inning? ZERO!
Bottom of the Ninth SDG: Bases loaded, just one out. By the way it was also 2nd and 3rd with NO outs! How many do the Padres get in this glorious run-scoring situation? ZERO!
As you can sense from the above, even though I won my other MLB play Sunday, and even though I am currently on a 43-16 MLB run (by the way, almost all totals and NO big faves EVER), I have reason to be frustrated with Sunday’s MLB results. As for the NFL, my preseason has gotten off to a frustrating start that has not been without its own “live and die” elements that I eluded to above.
After winning my Monday Night Football total on August 17th, I then felt frustration with each of my next two plays - one on Friday and one on Saturday. I am used to profitable preseasons and have enjoyed special, long-term success with my preseason NFL Top Plays. However, Friday I was dealt a loss on my total only because Kansas City failed to get in the end zone on four consecutive opportunities from the 1 yard line in the final minutes of the fourth quarter.
Ironically, my next play – and my first Top Play of the 2009 preseason – was dealt a similar fate. With only about two minutes left in the first half – and me holding a ticket with Denver +3 – the Broncos had a 10-7 lead that was ready to be 17-7. They had a second down from the Seattle 1 yard line! However, three straight chances, three straight failures and I got kicked in the teeth as that game totally turned on me (and my clients!) from that point forward. Momentum is huge in football. That’s why I ended up losing a play where my team actually had the yardage edge and a 17-12 first down edge, plus the Broncos were getting three points to boot!
You can bet I will bounce back from the rare, tough fate I was dealt over the weekend and I truly believe it helps clients to understand that I feel your pain too when unusual occurrences mar one of my big plays. With utmost confidence I can state that I feel a big ending to the NFL Preseason is on the way and the baseball run, just like the 2008 four-month season-ending run, will absolutely continue as I expect to stay red hot through the last pitch of the World Series.
I appreciate you being with me and I wish you the best of luck always – Scott Rickenbach.
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