CFB Betting: Handicapping Teams After Weather Postponements
by Sam Martin
One of the big story lines after the first weekend of the College Football season was the number of weather delays and, in some cases, suspensions of games due to lightning. While these games are official as far as standing are concerned, a game must play at least 55 minutes for it to be considered a full game for wagering purposes.
This past weekend, Michigan and Western Michigan was suspended in the third quarter with the Wolverines leading 34-10. Notre Dame and South Florida finished their game despite lengthy delays totaling nearly three hours, and then Sunday's Marshall vs. West Virginia contest was called just after the start of the fourth quarter with the Mountaineers leading 34-13.
The issue that arises from games being called early is using the stats from that suspended contest when handicapping that team for the rest of the season. All "per game averages" will now be skewed since the offense and defense didn't play a full 60 minutes.
What we can do is project those stats over a full 60 minutes, and use these
projected stats for our "per game averages" going forward. However, instead of taking the stats already accumulated and use the same ratio for the time not played, we have to take into account that both Michigan and West Virginia had big leads, and would have likely called a more conservative rushing game in the fourth quarter to bleed out the clock.
Don't disregard completely the stats from these games going forward, and certainly don't use the final stats as they stand now going forward either. Make your own judgement on how you think the games would have played out, and continue forward with your College Football Handicapping as if the game was played in full!
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