NBA Handicapping: Beware of the Dogs
by Sam Martin

Underdogs dominated the opening weekend of the 2011 NBA Playoffs, with seven of the eight underdogs covering the pointspread and three underdogs winning outright (Atlanta, Memphis, and New Orleans). Underdogs continued to dominate through Easter Sunday, covering 15 of the next 22 games with a number of outright underdog victories.
This is definitely not the norm in the First Round, which has seen the higher seeds dominate the lower seeds in the recent past, with many upper-seeds winning their series in a four-game sweep. As of Wednesday morning, we have two series with legitimate chances of the lower seed advancing (Atlanta and Memphis), and two more series that have a good chance of going the full seven games (Lakers vs. Hornets, Mavericks vs. Trailblazers).
So how long will this trend continue? Well, if this week is any indication, it won't last much longer. Favorites went 3-0 ATS on Tuesday night, and 1-1-1 on Monday so they are already cashing 80% this week. But now for the first time in a while we will have second round matchups involving teams that struggled in their opening round (or at least don't look as dominant as they did heading into the postseason).
Chicago, Boston, Miami, LA Lakers, San Antonio, and Orlando have all struggled offensively, and the lower-seeded teams actually believe they have a shot of not just taking a game or two, but winning their respective series. Is it just a case of bad matchups for the favorites? Is it, as Magic Johnson stated at halftime of the Lakers-Hornets game, "a case of out-physically the better team"? We think it's an unusual amount of confidence these teams have taken into the postseason, which comes back to coaching. That, and the fact that higher-seeded teams didn't necessarily need to take these first-round games seriously in the past and are caught a bit off-guard. But the lower seeds now have the full attention of the NBA's elite, and we expect the favorites to have a good week this week.
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