Most sports bettors think that letdowns happen when a team beats a rival or has a big win as an underdog. While that’s usually true, that’s not the exact definition of a letdown. Instead, a letdown occurs after a game is PLAYED against a rival or a highly ranked team, so it doesn’t matter if the team won or lost.

Also, depending on the team’s next opponent, a letdown might not occur. Basically, the process goes like this; if a college football team is playing a highly-ranked opponent, or a big rival, then the players and coaches are so revved up for that one game that they can’t possibly play at that level the next week. It’s the same as you or I going to Vegas for a weekend – we won’t be nearly as excited and pumped up the Monday after we come back home.

So, getting back to our last point, if a team is coming off a big win, but plays another big ranked opponent or a rival, then a letdown doesn’t occur. This happened last week with Arkansas. The Razorbacks were coming off a big win against rival Auburn, but played Florida the following week. Obviously, a team is going to be pumped up to play the number one team in the country. Florida, on the other hand, was in a letdown after winning against #4 LSU the week before. Arkansas was around a 24-point underdog, and nearly won the game outright, losing by just three points on a last-minute field goal.

Lookaheads work similar to letdowns, but are in reverse. These normally occur when a team is playing a big opponent or rival the following week, and is playing a bad opponent this week. The thought process here is that a team will focus on their big opponent during that week’s practice, not needing to devote all of their time against an opponent they should beat rather easily.

This (might) have happened to Ohio State in their season opener. If you recall, they opened their season at home against Navy. They took the field as a 22-point favorite, but needed an interception on a Navy two-point conversion to avoid going into overtime. Ohio State was hosting USC the following week, and likely spent the week leading up to that game focusing on USC’s tendencies while not paying too much attention to Navy’s triple-option offense.

While we don’t recommend you blindly follow letdowns and lookaheads in your handicapping, it is a useful tool to use and shouldn’t be ignored.

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