Robert Ross MLB Baseball Article: Picking On The Pitchers

MLB Ross Report: Picking On The Pitchers
by Robert Ross

By this time of year, form has been established. Pitchers are either on the way up or on the way down and it's easy to pick on the guys who can't get anyone out or back the guys who are going great. Take advantage of the opportunities while you can because it won't be long before September call-ups cloud the issue and some of the guys who are in rotations now won't be given any more chances.

A good rule of thumb for pitcher effectiveness is to look for a guy who has fewer hits allowed than innings pitcher and a K:BB ratio of 2:1 or better. Some allowances can be made for whether a pitcher works in the A.L. with the designated hitter, or in the N.L. without it, although even that line has been blurred some with interleague play.

Still, a pitcher who has allowed 128 hits in 120 IP pitched in the A.L. is a lot different from a guy who has done the same in the N.L. At such times, a look at the K:BB can be instructive. A guy with a few more hits than innings pitched can still be very effective if he's getting strikeouts and not walking anyone. Jeremy Bonderman of the Tigers, for instance, yielded 134 hits in his first 129 innings of work but had a better than 4:1 ratio: 117 strikeouts and 29 walks.

Far different from Bonderman is Steve Trachsel of Baltimore. He too had allowed a few more hits than innings pitched (116 in 108 innings) but with a negative K:BB ratio: 39 strikeouts and 56 walks. A pitcher like that is not to be trusted, especially against a high-powered offense.

High-powered offenses can often feast on ineffective hurlers. The oddsmaker is often up on these mismatches and makes the team with the killer offense a big favorite, but even if he does, the possibility exists to take such a team on the run line. A recent game at Yankee Stadium had Kyle Davies making his first start for the Royals versus the Bronx Bombers. Davies had been ineffective in Atlanta (an N.L. team) with 92 hits allowed in 86 IP and 59 K's versus 44 walks. He figured to struggle against the Yankees and did, coming out on the losing end of a 16-8 score.

Who a pitcher has compiled his numbers against and when is also important. A guy putting up poor numbers versus the top offensive teams in the league is far different from a guy getting knocked around by mediocre or average offenses. Also, what have you done lately is very important with pitchers. A pitcher might have a 3.60 ERA on the season, but 10 starts ago it was 2.75: clearly he did most of his good pitching early in the year and has not been as effective lately.

So watch those pitchers closely this month. Back those going well and pick on those going poorly. Look to play over when two struggling hurlers meet, such as a recent Houston at Atlanta contest that saw Jo Jo Reyes of the Braves and his 8.20 ERA go against Woody Williams of the 'Stros, working on his third straight season of more hits allowed than innings pitched. The final, in extra frames, was 12-11 Houston.

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