NFL Week One Betting Systems
by MTi Sports
Week one of the NFL is really a week in which you are handicapping the public’s impression of the teams as much as you are handicapping the teams themselves.
The line value you can get in the opening week is often due to the linesmakers overestimating the impact of off-season moves and giving the results from the previous season too much weight.
Here we present four systems that might allow you to capitalize on these misconceptions.
System #1: The League is 0-12 ATS as a 3-plus point underdog on Sunday in week one when they went to the playoffs last season.
Two teams quality for this system this season – the Colts and the Seahawks.
System #2: Teams that won 10+ games but did not make the playoffs are 0-4 ATS in week one the following season.
Two teams quality for this system this season – the Giants and the Buccaneers.
System #3: The league is 0-8 ATS in week one as a six-plus point favorite when they were a dog in their last three games from the previous season.
Two teams qualify for this system – the Browns and the Cardinals.
System #4: A week one home team that was eliminated from the playoffs in round one last season is 0-5 ATS vs a team that suffered double-digit losses last regular season.
The Chiefs qualify for this play-against system.
Each one of these four systems could be better than advertized. We have NFL playoff data back through 2002 and each one of these systems is perfect since then.
These systems should be included as part of your week one decision-making process. You may not want to play against the teams that qualify for these systems, but you probably don’t want to be playing ON them.
Get all of MTi Sports'
NFL picks at Vegas Experts.
