PGA: HP Byron Nelson Championship Preview and Picks

The PGA Tour stays in Texas this week for the HP Byron Nelson Championship from the TPC Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas in Irving, Texas. Irving has served as host city to the Nelson for more than 25 years and this event is the ninth longest running active tournament on the schedule. Despite this storied history, it does not attract the same field that it used to. The highest ranked player in the field is Matt Kuchar, who is currently 10th in the OWGR.

It was just six years ago that the Nelson had all five of the top five players in the OWGR and now along with the Hope, it is the only other regular event not conflicting with a WGC event that has only one top-10 player in the field. Scheduling is the problem as it conflicts with the European Tour’s BMW PGA Championship which has seven of the OWGR top ten players in the field. There are still some very notable names in the field however which should make for an exciting week.

This will be the fourth year the TPC will be the sole host as Cottonwood was removed from the rotation. The winning score that year was -7 by Adam Scott and the higher score can be attributed to the earlier date, late April, as opposed to the late May date that it now takes place at. Two years ago, Rory Sabbatini broke the tournament record at -19 while last year, Jason Day brought home the championship at -10. The weather forecast looks exceptional for scoring.

As mentioned Jason Day (+1500) is the defending champion as he won by two shots over Brian Gay, Jeff Overton and Blake Adams. He is coming off a T31 at Colonial last week which put an end to his top ten streak at three straight. Last year was his first at the Nelson so experience was certainly not an issue. Putting will be key once again this week and Day led the field in that category a year ago.

Nick Watney (+1000) is the favorite this week and rightfully so. He has six top tens to his credit this year while missing only one cut. He has a win under his belt at the WGC-Cadillac Championship and he is coming off a T4 at THE PLAYERS two weeks ago. He has not played the Nelson since 2008 when he finished T31 which is his best finish here but that is not a worry because of his recent form.

Dustin Johnson (+1500) started the season strong but he has not been playing as well of late. He opened the year with two top tens but his best finish since a solo second at the Cadillac Championship is a T57 at THE PLAYERS. This is the opposite of Watney but his track record at this event makes up for it as he has finished T7 and T4 the last two years. This could be where he turns his season around.

As noted, Brian Gay (+3000) was tied for runner up here last year and he fits this course perfectly. He has missed only one cut all season and his two best finishes were both T5 at the Hope and the Mayakoba Golf Classic. He is the most accurate driver on tour this year and is third in scrambling so when he does get in trouble, he recovers well. His 63 on Sunday here last year was the lowest round of the tournament.

Brandt Snedeker (+3000) is injury free and is having a great season thus far. He has five top tens including a win at the Heritage in April. He did follow that up with two missed cuts however he bounced back last week with a T16 at Colonial. He last played the Nelson back in 2007 but as is the case with Watney, his recent play trumps that. His putting alone should keep him in contention.

Despite no top tens and a missed cut at the Colonial last week, Brian Davis (+6000) is getting excellent value here. He took medalist honors at Gleneagles Country Club on Monday in the British Open qualifier so he has some renewed confidence after last week's disappointment. He missed the cut at the Nelson a year ago but he finished solo second in 2009, two shots behind Sabbatini.

HP Byron Nelson Championship Win Bets (all for 1 Unit)

Nick Watney (+1000)
Dustin Johnson (+1500)
Brian Gay (+3000)
Brandt Snedeker (+3000)
Brian Davis (+6000)

HP Byron Nelson Championship Matchup Bets (All from sportsbook.com) – All for 2 Units

Nick Watney -130 over Matt Kuchar
Charley Hoffman -115 over Jeff Overton
Brian Davis -125 over Chad Campbell
Ricky Barnes -130 over Andres Romero
D.A. Points -105 over Carl Pettersson

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