NBA Finals Game Four Preview

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics
Thursday, April 9th, 9:05 PM
(matchup)

The Numbers

The Celtics are -3.5 for Game Four of the NBA Finals over the Lakers. Game Three saw the closing line of Boston -2.5 and this game opened at -3 so it is right in line of where it should be. The total is at 190.5 which is a point less than the Game Three closing total. Through three games the total is 1-1-1 or 2-1 to the ‘Under’ depending on where and when Game One was bet.

Schizo-Allen

He giveth and he taketh away.

After Ray Allen broke the NBA Finals record with eight three-pointers in Game Two including seven straight makes, he nearly broke another record in Game Three. And it was not his own. He went 0-13 from the floor, including 0-8 from behind the arc, which came close to the 0-14 mark set by Dennis Johnson in 1979 and Chick Reiser in 1948.

How does this happen? Allen is one of the best shooters in the history of the league so his record performance last Sunday was not a total surprise. His dubious game on Tuesday was a surprise however. Had he even been a little below average and the Celtics probably would have won Game Three.

Despite being 0-12, Allen showed he still had confidence as he put up a long ball with under a minute remaining and Boston trailing by four points. It clanged off the rim and that was it.

“It's a hell of a swing, I'll tell you that,” Boston head coach Doc Rivers said. “It's basketball. That's why you can't worry about it. He'll be back in the gym [Wednesday] and getting ready for the next game. I thought he was pressing early on some of them, and, honestly, I thought all of his shots looked flat tonight.”

47-0? Who Cares

By now everyone has heard about Phil Jackson and his remarkable record when winning the first game of a playoff series. Including the Lakers in their three prior series this year, Jackson-coached have never lost a playoff series after winning the first game as they are a perfect 47-0 between the Bulls and Lakers.

As gaudy as that sounds, while some may be impressed, I am not 100 percent sold on it and here is why. When looking at the other 252 series that Jackson was not part of, the team that won Game One went on to win the series 199 times or 79 percent. Take that 79 percent and apply it to Jackson and his record in those series should be 38-9.

That is an additional nine series that were won over the rest of the league but you also have to take note of the teams that he was coaching and how great they were. How great? None of his teams that won the NBA Championship dropped a single playoff series whether or not they won Game One.

Therefore, while many are concluding the Celtics are done, I say they are not. The series price right now is Boston +270 to +310 most everywhere and that is tremendous value with two games still coming up at home.

Kobe or Fisher

Kobe Bryant was more like himself in Game Three as he put up and made some big shots in leading the Lakers with 29 points. He was almost a non-factor in Game Two so because of the results on Tuesday, he is hailed as once again being a clutch player. Well, he isn’t and there is proof of it.

He went 10-29 from the floor in Game Three and that is the furthest thing from clutch. Any player is going to score than many points and lead the team in scoring by putting it up way more than twice as much as the next closest player in attempts. The real proof is what player is the best when the game is on the line.

According to 82 Games, Bryant is fourth in the league in total game-winners hit but he holds the top spot in a less glamorous category - the most game-winning opportunity missed shots. In total, he has made only 25 percent (14-56) of his game-winning shots. He certainly has an overblown reputation when it comes to the clutch shot.

There are four players in this series with better game-winning percentages that should be looked at first. Ray Allen (15-39 for 38.5 percent), Paul Pierce (11-32 for 34.4 percent), Pau Gasol (9-18 for 50 percent) and Derek Fisher (8-20 for 40 percent).

Fisher is known for his clutch performances in tight situations. From his shot with 0.4 seconds left to beat San Antonio in the 2004 playoffs to his game 4 performance in last season’s finals where he hit key shots in the pivotal game to give the Lakers the win, Fisher has seen and done it all. In Game Three, 11 of his 16 points came in the fourth quarter including some real clutch shots.

Must Win Time

While stated earlier that the Celtics are far from dead, this is a very important time. The value is still in their corner but the time is dwindling. A loss in Game Four means they would have to win out the series to win the championship and that means two final games in Los Angeles. It can be done but it is something Boston does not want to have to do.

Recent history is on the Celtics' side as they trailed the Cavaliers 2-1 in the second round but came back to win the next three games. Past history is not on their side however. Since the Finals went to a 2-3-2 format in 1985, there have been 10 previous instances of a series being tied 1-1. In all 10 cases, the Game Three winner went on to win the title.

Boston is well aware of this fact but like the Jackson streak, the Celtics could care less. As Tony Allen said, this Celtics team is about living in the present, not the past. “Let me tell you this,” Allen said. “This team is in the present right now; we're not worrying about what went on previously, not worried about the stats about who wins the third game and all that. We're worried about the next game, and that's our focus.”

Game Four is then a must win spot for the Celtics but we need to take the line into consideration. With it being close to the same as the line from Game Three, the linesmakers have not made the over adjustment of the “must win” team being overpriced. The thinking is relatively simple because the higher that line gets, the more action will come in on the publicly loved Lakers.

Trends

The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.

The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games as an underdog of fewer than five points.

The ‘Over’ is 7-1-2 in Lakers last 10 games following a straight up win.

The ‘Over’ is 35-16 in Celtics last 51 games following a straight up loss.

The Celtics are 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.

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