Portland opened as a one-point favorite over Phoenix for Game Six with the total set at 201.5. With the last three games in this series staying under the total, it is no surprise this is the lowest posted number so far in the series.

The Skinny

A week ago, Portland was feeling pretty good about itself. It had stolen a game in Phoenix and headed home with the series split at one game apiece and took over the home court advantage. Now just seven days later, the Blazers are on the brink of elimination making this a must win situation.

The teams have each taken four games in the season series with Phoenix taking three of five at home and Portland taking two of three at home. The road team has won three of the eight meetings so home court has not exactly been a major advantage and the 16 home losses this season for Portland are the most of any playoff team from the Western Conference.

The Suns finished the regular season with 35 conference wins, tied for the most with the Lakers out west.

Statistical Breakdown

Phoenix is averaging 109.9 ppg on the season and if it comes close to that, there is a good chance for a win. When the Suns score fewer than 100 points, they are 2-11 on the season (2-10-1 ATS). They get better when totaling between 100 and 105 points, going 8-11 (8-11 ATS as well). But when scoring 106 or more points, they are 47-8 (41-14 ATS) so putting up a ton of points is the way to win.

Portland has gone over the century mark 38 times and has won 29 of those games (28-10 ATS) including three games against the Suns. Conversely, the Blazers are 23-26 in the 39 games they have failed to tally at least 100 points (18-19-2 ATS).

When it comes to defense, it is important for both teams. The Blazers have allowed 100 or more points 28 times and are just 7-21 in those games (8-20 ATS). It is rare for Phoenix to allow teams to miss the century mark but in the 24 games it has done so, it is 22-2 (20-3-1 ATS).

Tempo Wins

This is a point that was brought up in the breakdown for last week and it still holds true as the pace of the game has determined who has won so far.

In Game One, Portland controlled the tempo and even though there were more shots attempted by both teams, it went to the Blazers advantage. In that first game, the Suns had just four fast break points but they had seven by the middle of the first quarter in Game Two on their way to 17 fast break points overall.

In the pivotal Game Three, Phoenix had only 11 fast break points but it made up for it with incredible long range shooting, hitting 13-28 behind the arc (46.4 percent).

In Game Four, the Suns were held to just four fast break points and could not hit anything from the outside, shooting just 26.1 percent from three-point land. Thus, they scored a season low 87 points.

On Monday, the tempo went the Suns way yet again as they held a 17-6 fast break point advantage and it was their bench that was the difference as it really exposed the thin Blazers roster.

History Lesson

With the home court back on their side, the Suns have a big edge in being able to close the series.

Game One losers have gone on to win best-of-seven series only 21 percent of the time. It gets a lot better for the home-court-advantage teams when they win Game Two for a split however, which Phoenix did, as those teams have gone on to win the series 63 percent of the time.

Now with a 3-2 series lead, the Blazers backs are against the wall. The team that wins Game Five in a series that is tied ends up taking the series 83 percent of the time.

Trends

The home team is 8-3-1 ATS the last 12 meetings while the favorite is 17-7-2 ATS the last 26 meetings.

Phoenix is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

Portland is 8-20 ATS in home games after a double-digit loss over the last three seasons.

The ‘Under’ is 7-1-1 in the Suns last nine games following a double-digit win while the ‘Under’ is 8-0 in the Blazers last eight games following a double-digit loss.

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