2011 NFC South Preview
by Marc Lawrence
If you are a vegan, like gaunt former President Bill Clinton, chances are you are likely a devotee of the NFC West. If you like barbeque, Cajun jambalaya and southern fried chicken, then the NFC South is likely more to your liking.
It’s in this division they’ve been cooking up a winning recipe a lot lately. Atlanta has made four playoff appearances since 2000, Carolina and Tampa Bay three, while New Orleans won the 2009 cook-off when they stunned Indianapolis in Super Bowl XLIV.
Incidentally, life on the division road has been particularly kind to members of this loop as evidenced by its 68-39 ATS mark since the league re-aligned divisions in 2002. When taking to the division road and seeking revenge they are 36-18 ATS, including 20-6 whenever with team is playing off a SU win.
And don’t underestimate the three experienced starting quarterbacks residing in the conference, namely Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, New Orleans’ Drew Brees and Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman. Collectively they have shined as starters in this league when playing away (66-39-4 ATS), off a loss (4702804 ATS) or in non-division contests (80-55-4 ATS).
Yes, there’s lots of tantalizing hors d’oeuvres to munch on when sizing up this division and, while it may not be health food, it’s pretty much finger licking good.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine, with various addendums included after the NFL Lockout was lifted. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
ATLANTA
TEAM THEME: BATMAN AND ROBIN
With a three year batting average of .660, and averaging 11 wins per season in that span, the dynamic duo of QB Matt Ryan and head coach Mike Smith have not only been winning games at an exceptional clip but also robbing the bookmakers blind as well, cashing 62% of the time at the pay window. In a head-scratching move the Falcons gave up a bundle to move up 21 spots in this year’s draft to select WR Julio Jones to compliment Pro Bowl receiver Roddy White. Good for the offense; bad for the defense as they failed to address the need for an impact pass rusher. Then again, there was no team worse than Atlanta in 2010 with only 44 plays of 20 yards or longer. The bottom line is that it’s hard to knock a team that was eliminated as a favorite in last year’s playoffs by the eventual Super Bowl champion, especially with many of the same pieces in place. And holy pigskin, let’s not don’t forget the dynamic duo’s marvelous 12-3 SU and 13-2 ATS mark in games off a loss.
PLAY ON: vs. Green Bay (10/9) - *KEY off a loss
FAST FACT: Falcons are 6-1 SU and ATS vs. NFC North division foes under Smith.
CAROLINA
TEAM THEME: PITY PARTY
The Panthers put it all on the line when they rolled the dice and selected last year’s Heisman Trophy winning quarterback, and self-designated icon and entertainer, Cam Newton with the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft. He joins new coach Ron Rivera as the makeover begins. Newton was the 9th SEC signal caller ever to go No.1 in the draft. FYI: the last four quarterbacks were JaMarcus Russell, Tim Couch, Eli Manning and Peyton Manning. You can see for yourself the [real] good, good, bad and ugly in the there. Pity the Panthers this season. Despite owning the worst record in the league last year, Carolina will face toughest opponent schedule this year as last year’s foes were 142-114. And unfortunately, the Panthers were one of many teams really hurt by the NFL Lockout. For two young quarterbacks (Newton and Jimmy Clausen) needing to learn a whole new playbook, it could be one giant step back for progress before Newton is able to lay down the law. The question begs: will we be witnessing Cedric the Entertainer or Cam the Quarterback.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Green Bay (9/18)
FAST FACT: The straight up stat winner in Panthers games was 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS last season.
NEW ORLEANS
TEAM THEME: HE DA MAN
The impact caused from this year’s NFL lockout took on different form with different teams. Most players buddied-up to stay in shape while others did their own thing. In New Orleans’ case, QB Drew Brees insisted the Saints remain on the same page as a team, both on and off the field, regardless of the cost. He arranged team workouts at Tulane University practice fields and close to 40 players attended. Brees said working together is key. He said, "We would all be working out somewhere anyway, so why not do it together? I feel like this is putting us way ahead of other teams by having it so organized." Most notably, Brees brought in his own personal trainer and paid whatever costs were necessary, including hotels for some of the younger players. When asked how much it might cost, Brees replied, "Who knows. We'll see. But it's worth it." Meanwhile, the Saints selected two players in the first round of the draft for only the fourth time in the 45-year history of the organization when they landed DE Cameron Jordan and RB Mark Ingram. Welcome to the team.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Green Bay (9/8)
FAST FACT: Drew Brees is 10-1-1 ATS away vs. .400 or less division opponents.
TAMPA BAY
TEAM THEME: PASS THE BUC
How far have the Bucs come under Raheem Morris, you ask? Consider that last year they were favored in six contests. That’s six more games than they were favored in Morris’ first year with Tampa Bay (2009). They also helped the NFC South earn the label ‘the toughest division in the NFL’ when it was the only one in the league that featured three teams (Falcons, Saints and Bucs) with double-digit win totals last season. Okay, so they didn’t make the playoffs, nor did they beat a winning team last year until the last game of the season. And yes, they beat up on the Sisters of the Poor when they went 9-1 against .500 or less opposition and only 1-4 against winning teams. But the rapid ascent of QB Josh Freeman is hard to overlook. He’s the primary reason the Bucs’ numbers are up across the board as the defense generously benefits from not being on the field for extended periods of time. An impressive draft landed DE’s Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers, plus depth in the defensive backfield. Give them their due. They are doing it the right way behind Morris and it shows.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Jacksonville (12/11)
FAST FACT: Tampa Bay is 0-4 SU and ATS away vs. AFC South opponents in its franchise history.
Get all of Marc Lawrence's winning NFL picks for the upcoming 2011 season at Vegas Experts.
