2011 AFC West Preview
by Marc Lawrence
The good news in the AFC West last year was that only one team suffered a losing record. The bad news is only one team earned a spot in the playoffs – and surprisingly it wasn’t San Diego.
The wild, wild West finds two new coaches roaming the sidelines in 2011, namely veteran John Fox at Denver and rookie Hue Jackson at Oakland. Fox arrives after compiling a 78-74 SU and 76-73-3 ATS mark in nine seasons at Carolina, including a nifty 32-22-1 ATS mark as a road dog.
Meanwhile, like Fox, incumbents Todd Haley at Kansas City and Norv Turner at San Diego bring near-break even career records in to the season as well.
That’s confirmed with Haley’s 14-19 SU and 16-17 ATS career mark in all games, including 4-8 SU and 3-7 ATS against division foes.
Turner enters with a 103-109-1 SU and 102-107-4 ATS career log, including 17-28 ATS as a division host.
No matter what spin you put on it appears as if the numbers above make this the mild, mid West, if you get our drift.
In closing, this note of caution: Before revving up with home teams in this division, you would be best advised to throttle down as AFC West hosts went 23-43-5 ATS this past decade in games versus division opponents with losing records, including a mind-boggling 2-16-1 ATS in an anticipated low-scoring contest when the Over/Under total in the game was 40 or fewer points.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine, with various addendums included after the NFL Lockout was lifted. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
DENVER
TEAM THEME: FOX TROT
While one of new coach John Fox's favorite expressions is "the best pass defense is a pass rush,” the Denver fans wouldn't know. The Broncos’ 23 sacks last season tied for the 45th lowest total in the franchise's 50 years. The addition of LB Von Miller, the 2nd player selected in this year’s draft, along with the return of a healthy Elvis Dumerville should remedy the situation. Miller had 27.5 sacks and 39 tackles for loss the last two seasons in the Big 12 and Dumerville led the NFL in sacks in 2009. John Elway, new director of operations, was so enamored with Miller that it was his contention a person didn’t even need to know what number Miller wore in college to know him since he stood out so much on tape. "He'll be a big part of us bringing back the Orange Crush defense," Elway gushed. On the offensive front Fox trots around the quarterback situation, insisting the job is wide open between Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow. Regardless, we still believe that Tebow may still be a virgin, but when he scores he’ll always continue to enjoy the thrill of six.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Cincinnati (9/18) *KEY off win
FAST FACT: Denver is 19-3 SU and ATS away in games in which it allows 100 or less rushing yards.
KANSAS CITY
TEAM THEME: TRANSFORMERS
When the Chiefs nabbed WR Jonathan Baldwin with the 26th pick in the first round of this year’s draft they landed a prototype of today's NFL receiver: big (230 pounds), tall (6-4) and fast, with great athletic skills that can stretch a defense and still fight for every pass thrown over the middle. "There's been a transformation in the last few years in the NFL with the receivers," said head coach Todd Haley, an old receivers coach during his climb up the professional ladder. "They are bigger and taller and they can run. They are exceptional talents. That's what he gives us." He also gives the Chiefs a relief valve for Pro Bowl WR Dwayne Bowe and a second option for QB Matt Cassel. In addition, the Featherheads also landed QB Ricky Stanzi, a 5th-round coup and the first signal caller drafter by Chiefs since 2006 (Brodie Croyle). Before getting too geeked up about the rebirth of this team under Haley, it’s important to remember they faced only two winning teams last season – and lost both games straight up. Taking on the 2nd toughest non-division opponent schedule this year will serve as a litmus test.
PLAY ON: as a home dog vs. San Diego (10/31)
FAST FACT: Chiefs are 15-7 SU and 17-4-1 ATS as division home dogs with revenge.
OAKLAND
TEAM THEME: CABLE CANCELLED
Tom Cable is out and Hue Jackson (Raiders offensive coordinator last year) is in, with Jackson becoming the seventh head coach the last 10 years in Oakland. Don’t feel sorry for Cable. That’s what he gets for becoming the first coach in NFL history to sweep its division and not make the playoffs, at least according to Al Davis’ logic. Davis was a football coach long before he became an owner and he believes there are two things you can’t teach – size and speed. His obsession struck again in this year’s draft. After a solid pick with C Stefen Wisniewski of Penn State, the Raiders went heavy on speed thereafter, setting up another potentially disastrous draft. And in a move similar to Drew Brees orchestrating and underwriting team practice sessions, DL Richard Seymour invited teammates to attend on-field drills, weightlifting, swimming and nutritional counseling during the lockout – all funded by Seymour. “We are going to outwork everyone we face this season, and it starts right now in the offseason,” emailed Seymour who signed a $30 million, two-year contract with the Raiders in February.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Chicago (11/27)
FAST FACT: The Raiders are 1-7 SU and ATS all-time vs. NFC North opponents.
SAN DIEGO
TEAM THEME: NORVOUS TIME
As sure as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, you can set your watch on the fact the Chargers will start slow and finish fast –as long as Norv Turner is roaming the sidelines. That’s confirmed by the Bolts’ 8-12 SU and 7-12-1 ATS mark in their first five games with Turner (2-3 all four years), and their 33-11 SU and 28-15-1 ATS log in games 6 through 16. It was bad enough that San Diego owned the league’s top ranked offense AND defense, yet failed to make the playoffs last season. That might be attributed to the fact that the Chargers were so beaten up last season they wheeled out 74 players, tying a league record. They were especially short in the wide receiver department where there were nine with at least one catch and none with more than 37. Adding to Norv’s dilemma this year will be four games in Eastern-time zones, resulting in 26,740 miles of travel in 2011. The bottom line is this team is too talented to let what happened last season repeat itself in 2011.
PLAY ON: vs. Oakland (11/10) - *KEY
FAST FACT: The Chargers are 20-2 in the month of December.
Get all of Marc Lawrence's winning NFL picks for the upcoming 2011 season at Vegas Experts.
