2011 AFC South Preview
by Marc Lawrence
Could there be a changing of the guard in the South this season?
If you trust in NFL QB ratings there is. That’s because after nipping at Peyton Manning heels two years ago, Houston’s Matt Schaub’s 92.0 rating edged Manning’s 91.9 at season’s end last year.
With Manning slow to recover from off season neck surgery, and Colts forced to rely on the quarterback tandem of Curtis Painter and Kerry Collins until his return, Houston will certainly need to improve on its 10-15 SU and 10-14-1 ATS record during the first five games of the season under Gary Kubiak in order to take advantage.
Quarterback questions also surround Jacksonville and Tennessee where David Garrard looks to hold off first-round pick Blaine Gabbert while Matt Hasselbeck will be sleepless outside Seattle for the first time in his NFL career this season.
Two notes of interest concerning the AFC South: Since their inception in 2002, the AFC South has been a home dog haven, with its members going 54-35-1ATS, including 32-14-1 during the 2nd half of the season.
In addition, this division has dominated it’s NFC brethren, going 24-9-1 SU and 22-11 ATS against the NFC South, including 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS at home.
In this business, the bottom line is… the bottom line. The bottom line here: Look for the South to continue its surge in 2011.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine, with various addendums included after the NFL Lockout was lifted. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
HOUSTON
TEAM THEME: THE ‘P’ WORD
The word on the NFL streets is that the Houston offense has plenty of balls. It’s the defense that played like pussies and consequently suffered its first losing season last year since head coach Gary Kubiak took over the reins in 2006. Thus, new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is a welcome addition to a team that had none. Phillips is a mastermind on the defensive front where he moved the Chargers from 31st to 11th in total team defense in just one season. Bum’s boy is also installing a 3-4 defense and as a result the Texans used seven of their eight draft picks, including the first five, on defensive players. He’s also shifting imposing 6-6, 295-pound Pro Bowl DE Mario Williams to linebacker. Meanwhile, Kubiak’s high profiled attack unit continues to improve, having bettered its offensive production each of the last three years in a row. That being said, a tough opening slate this year (one losing foe in first six games) figures to test this team's mettle early on. Thanks to Phillips, more testosterone and fewer close shaves figure to pave the way to the playoffs this season.
PLAY ON: vs. Carolina (12/18)
FAST FACT: Houston is 4-0 SU and ATS vs. NFC South opponents in it franchise history.
INDIANAPOLIS
TEAM THEME: GET YOUR WINTER ON
Making the best of a short stack, the Colts chipped away and left this year’s draft table feeling mighty good about their haul. First and second round selections, Anthony Castonzo and Ben Ijalana, both figure to start on an offensive line that is in serious decline. And third round pick, DT Drake Nevis, was a sure-fire steal. This on the heels of a strong finish last year when there was a point, at 6-6 on the season, the Colts were about to give a whole new meaning to ‘Indianapolis .500’. Instead, to their credit, they managed to secure a ninth-straight berth in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Colts will hope to do what the Cowboys couldn’t last year, namely get to a Super Bowl on their home field when Indianapolis hosts SB XLVI. Getting there won’t be easy, though, as Indy faces the league’s toughest non-division opponent schedule this year, with foes going 93-67 combined last year. Sure it can get a bit brisk in Naptown in February but, hey, they’re prepared. After all, there is nowhere they’d rather be than at Peyton’s place this year. Yeah, it’s cool.
PLAY ON: vs. New Orleans (10/23) - *KEY as a dog
FAST FACT: The Colts are 4-0 SU and ATS all-time away vs. NFC South opponents.
JACKSONVILLE
TEAM THEME: GIFT OF GAB
In a move that raised a few eyebrows, the Jags traded up to land QB Blaine Gabbert of Missouri with the No. 10 pick in this year’s draft. They hadn’t drafted a quarterback since they picked Byron Leftwich in 2003. The move didn’t surprise Terry Shea, the NFL quarterback coach-guru who worked with Gabbert, and groomed top picks Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford for the draft the previous two seasons. “He’s an exceptional athlete with tremendous work ethic,” said Shea. “He will be the face of the franchise for many years to come.” Residing in a division with Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub, credit Jack Del Rio for pulling the trigger and making the savvy move. Granted, the team has holes aplenty on the defense but the Jaguars had Gabbert as the top-rated quarterback in the draft. It also sends a message to incumbent QB David Garrard – improve or be replaced. Ironically, Gabbert will have the luxury of being groomed by Garrard. Gabbert acknowledged he was able to get a playbook after being drafted. Said Gabbert, "It's great to have it, and I've already gotten into it a lot."
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Cleveland (11/20)
FAST FACT: Del Rio is 11-1 ATS as a road dog of six or less points with revenge.
TENNESSEE
TEAM THEME: GONE FISHING
After tip toeing all around the Vince Young malady Jeff Fisher, the longest-tenured coach in the NFL, called it quits. The direct result was a season ending 1-8 tailspin as the Titans tasted their first losing season in five years. Mike Munchak, a Hall of Fame offensive lineman with franchise and 14-year assistant with Fisher, becomes the first former player to become a Tennessee head coach. Munchak’s new offensive coordinator is Chris Palmer the former Browns head coach. Palmer will be itching to work with Jake Locker, considered a reach by many with the 8th pick in the first round of this year’s draft. The talented Locker promises to be prepared, stating “If you understand what you’re doing, you’re allowed to play fast. That allows you to have more success, so that’s where my focus will be.” To insure his long-term success, the Titans acquired veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck from Seattle. The good news is that only seven other teams in the league will take on a harder schedule than Tennessee this season. If it sounds like we’re baiting you on the Titans’ prospects this season, we are. Half of its 18 losses the past two seasons have been by eight or fewer points.
PLAY ON: vs. Tampa Bay (11/27)
FAST FACT: Tennessee is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS vs. NFC opponents in its franchise history.
Get all of Marc Lawrence's winning NFL picks for the upcoming 2011 season at Vegas Experts.
