NBA: Round Two Betting Edges
by Marc Lawrence
With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, itís one to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.
Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action. All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.
Three down, but not out
Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not go down easily in Round Two.
Unlike most other rounds, teams playing off three consecutive losses that are not favored (pick or dog) prove to be resilient this round, going 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS.
Better yet, if they showed some spark of like in the last game Ė scoring 82 or more points Ė these teams tend to take a punch almost as well as Jake LaMotta, going 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in this role.
Thou shall not lay points to a No. 1 seed
One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: never lay points against No.1 seeds.
Thatís because inferior teams are just 15-25-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996. Worse, if the No. 1 seed is off a SU and ATS loss, lower seeded favorites are just 3-10 ATS.
And if the lower seeded favorite beat the top seed and covered the spread by nine or more points, they dip to 1-10 ATS.
You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs do.
Thatís confirmed by the fact that Round Two dogs off a straight-up loss as a favorite are 29-20 ATS.
When changing roles off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, these puppies bark to the tune of 11-4 ATS, including 10-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of les than .680 on the season.
Running on empty
Teams that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up the next game in this round.
Thatís evident by a sparkling 20-10-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.
Put these favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 15-3 ATS, including 14-1 when laying four or more points.
There you have it. Four reliable betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this yearís NBA playoffs. Use your head and play accordingly.
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