CFB: Look Out Below
by Marc Lawrence
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When teams on a win streak reach the final game of the regular season, it’s frequently with a sigh of satisfaction. Contentment, though, often turns to bitter disappointment when they enter the season finale off a straight-up underdog win.
Consider – since 1980 college conference teams off back-to-back victories are just 41-63-3 ATS if their last win was as an underdog. This week’s teams that may end up bottoming out are: Buffalo, Central Florida, Mississippi, NC State and Oregon State. Worse yet, they dip to 18-35-3 ATS when seeking revenge against an opponent they lost to in their most recent meeting. One team finds itself in this role this week: Ole Miss.
When cast into the role of a favorite or dog of 5 or less points in season finales, off back-to-back wins with the last as an underdog, they dip to 8-22-1 ATS. And if their opponent allows less than 27 PPG on the season they drop to 4-21-1 ATS. The Rebels of Ole Miss will try and overcome this ‘return to earth’ phenomenon on Saturday.
To that we say, “Look Out Below”. It won’t be an asteroid you’ll hear crashing to earth this weekend. Just Johnny Reb…
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