LSU at Alabama Preview
by Lenny Del Genio
It’s the College Football Game of the Year this Saturday in Tuscaloosa with #2 Alabama hosting #1 LSU Saturday night in a battle of two of the nation’s remaining six unbeatens. Oddsmakers have opened the Crimson Tide as a 4.5-point favorite over the top-ranked Tigers, which means they feel Bama is the slightly better team factoring out the edge in home field advantage.
Alabama certainly owns a distinct home field advantage. Under head coach Nick Saban, the Tide has gone 16-3 straight up vs. SEC opponents at Bryant-Denny Stadium. One of those losses came to LSU in 2007 with the Tigers winning 41-34 as seven-point underdogs.
Last year’s meeting also saw the Bayou Bengals pull an upset, this time in Baton Rouge, winning by a field goal as six-point home dogs. There were a total of five lead changes in the game as Bama led 14-10 heading into the fourth quarter, but could not hold on.
Two years ago, it was Alabama that made a fourth quarter rally, coming back from 15-10 down to win 24-15 as seven-point chalk. They outgained the Tigers 106-9 in the final quarter. From there, the Tide would go on to win the National Championship.
Overall, LSU has held a distinct advantage in this SEC West rivalry, winning 8 of 11. However, they have split the last four years.
Both teams bring devastating defenses into this matchup. LSU is allowing an average of 11.5 points per game for the season, 15.2 PPG on the road. Alabama is even better, allowing a ridiculous 6.9 PPG overall and 5.4 PPG here at home. No team has scored more than 14 points this year against the Crimson Tide. LSU has allowed 21 or more points twice, but that was against Oregon and West Virginia away from home.
Alabama has covered the spread in all but one game this season – when they were 47-point favorites vs. North Texas and won “only” 41-0. Their closest margin of victory has been by 16 points (Penn State). LSU has only a pair of ATS losses on its resume and won those games SU by a final margin of 84-10.
Let’s take a look at common opponents. Both teams have played Florida and Tennessee and in the case of both opponents, they played them in consecutive weeks. First, Alabama beat Florida 38-10 and then LSU got the Gators 41-11. The Tigers followed that 30-pt win with a 38-7 win over Tennessee. Then last week we saw the Tide do the same to the Vols, winning 37-6.
Let’s not forget about the offenses here either. Alabama averages 39.4 PPG. LSU averages 39.2 PPG. At least one key college football betting system indicates that the Crimson Tide is the correct pick here. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, in a conference game involving two offenses that average 34 PPG or greater are a horrible 3-23 ATS the last ten seasons.
Get the winning College Football pick on LSU at Alabama from former oddsmaker Lenny Del Genio at Vegas Experts.
