Detroit Lions: Overrated or Underrated?
by Lenny Del Genio
Now that the lockout is over and the dust has settled in free agency, it seems as if everyone is making their NFL picks for the upcoming season. My team and I are already busy figuring out who we like and who we don’t and will be offering some NFL previews and futures bet as the 2011 season gets nearer.
For now, I’d just like to remind you that I finished a combined 42 games over .500 in Pro and College Football last season and am looking forward to another great year of football picks this season.
Perhaps the trendiest
NFL pick you hear about these days is the Detroit Lions. Last year’s #1 overall draft choice Ndamukong Suh made headlines this offseason when he predicted that the team would go 16-0 straight up in the upcoming regular season. For a franchise that has not had a winning season since 2000 and has not made the playoffs since 1999, this seems like optimism gone awry.
Since 2002’s realignment, the Lions are the only NFC team never to have made the postseason even once. They have twice gone three consecutive seasons (2001-03, 2008-10) without winning a road game. They are only three years removed from the NFL’s only 0-16 regular season in history. They would go on to lose 19 straight overall, which is the second worst streak in NFL history. Last season saw them snap a 25-game road losing streak with a late season win at Tampa Bay.
Many people who are bullish on the Lions this year seem to forget that this is a team that was 2-10 through its first 12 games last season. They did close strong with four consecutive victories, but two were against Miami and Minnesota, who weren’t very good. In the aforementioned game vs. Tampa Bay, they were the beneficiary of a blown call and won in OT. They also beat the Packers 9-7 when Green Bay lost Aaron Rodgers early in the game.
Detroit definitely does have a lot to be excited about. They got perhaps the steal of the draft when Auburn’s Nick Fairley, once thought to be the #1 pick overall, dropped to them at #12. Of course, in true Lions form, Fairley is already hurt. Speaking of hurt, what about the tale of QB Matt Stafford? Can this guy stay healthy for 16 minutes, let alone 16 games?
Another reason we are skeptical of betting the Lions this year was 2010’s ATS record. Detroit had the best ATS record in the NFL last season at 11-4-1 ATS. The oddsmakers have a funny way of getting back at you the season following a year like that. Don’t expect a lot of line value with the Detroit Lions in 2011.
The above factors lead us to believe that a bet on
Detroit Under 7.5 wins would be a good one.
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