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NBA Western Conference Finals Preview
by Lenny Del Genio

Vegas Experts is your home NBA Playoff handicapping. Check out our NBA playoff trends, NBA playoff odds and save 20% off our NBA playoff picks when you become a member!

The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder play Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals Tuesday night on ESPN with the Mavs favored by six points at the betting window. They took two of three from the Thunder during the regular season with the road team winning straight up in every game.

One of the biggest stories in the NBA playoffs, at least in betting circles, has been the Mavs 10-0 ATS run through the first two rounds. They covered all six first round games vs. the Blazers, a series many predicted them to lose and then were 4-0 ATS in a stunning sweep of the defending champion Lakers. Dating back to the regular season, Dallas has now covered 14 straight games while also going 12-2 straight up. This is the franchise’s first appearance in the Western Conference Finals since 2006.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are making their first appearance in the Conference Finals since relocating from Seattle. Two years ago, the team lost 29 of its first 32 games, so it has improved quickly behind the dynamic duo of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Thunder have not been nearly as profitable this postseason compared to the Mavs, going 6-5-1 ATS. They were 4-3 ATS in the series vs. Memphis with the SU winner also covering the spread in every game.

The total for Game 1 is up to 193.5 points. It’s worth noting that 20 of the previous 26 meetings between these two teams have gone Over the total, including two of three this season. The Mavericks are 3-0 Under this season when coming off a win by 20 points or more.

Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to Dallas, winning straight up the last two times. While they are 30-16 ATS on the road this season, Dallas is only 24-20 ATS at home.

The big difference coming into this series will be the question of rest. Dallas has not played since last Sunday, giving them a full week of rest over their opponent. They are 4-2 ATS this season when playing with three or more days rest. Also, Oklahoma City has yet to cover a Game 1 in either round.

As far as we’re concerned the key matchup to this series is the battle of point guards – Russell Westbrook vs. Jason Kidd. Westbrook has received a ton of criticism this postseason for taking more shots than Durant, but could exploit a slower and older Kidd, who has only had to deal with Brandon Roy (no knees) and Derek Fisher (older than dirt).

Bodog Sportsbook has the Mavericks as -240 favorites to win the series. If you like Oklahoma City, you can get them at +200 odds.

Get every NBA playoff pick from Lenny Del Genio at Vegas Experts.

 
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