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2011 National League West Preview
by Lenny Del Genio

Opening day of the 2011 Major League Baseball regular season is here. Join former linesmaker Lenny Del Genio for his division by division previews as he gives you the oddsmakers edge for the upcoming MLB season.

Check out the rest of Lenny's division by division 2011 MLB Previews: AL East | AL West | AL Central | NL Central | NL East .

All MLB odds are courtesy of Bodog.

1. San Francisco Giants (NL West Odds: +130 | Odds to Win National League: 6/1 | World Series Odds: 11/1 | Futures Odds: 88.5 wins)

The Giants were the surprise World Series winner in 2010 thanks to timely hitting and outstanding pitching. They are not the World Series favorites per se this year, but are certainly contenders. No NL team has won the pennant in back to back years since the Big Red Machine did it in 1976-77.

Few teams in baseball can match the Giants pitching. The have broken the franchise record for most strikeouts in a season each of the last two years and led MLB last season with 1,331 K’s. The staff combined to throw four shutouts last postseason – tying a MLB record – two of them coming in the World Series. With the exception of an unusually poor August, former two time Cy Young Winner Tim Lincecum was his usual awesome self. Rookie Madison Bumgarner actually pitched better on the road than at home and will try and avoid the sophomore slump. There are some worries in the bullpen as closer Brian Wilson (and his beard) start the year on the DL.

Because the pitching was so great last year, the Giants were able to go 80-24 when they scored at least three runs. No team had a better winning percentage in that scenario. Still though, they only hit .257 in 2010. However, Rookie of the Year Buster Posey will be with the club for an entire regular season this year. CF Andres Torres has committed only one error since 2003, hit 16 HR and had 26 stolen bases.

While it is very difficult to repeat as World Series Champs, all the pieces are in place for another long run into the postseason by the Giants. We think they will come up a bit short in their bid, although they’ll repeat as division champs. Prediction: 93 wins.

2. Colorado Rockies (NL West Odds: +185 | Odds to Win National League: 11/1 | World Series Odds: 25/1 | Futures Odds: 86.5 wins)

A lot of baseball bettors are sleeping on the Colorado Rockies and we expect this team to push the Giants all season long. Everyone kept waiting for the Rockies to make their usual late season charge last September, but it never happened and they finished third in the division. They were just one game out of first place on September 13th, but would go on to lose 13 of their final 14 games.

There was a strong home-road dichotomy with this team in 2010 as they went 52-29 at Coors Field, but only 31-50 on the road. Their road batting average of .226 was the second worst in the NL and their runs scored away from home (291) led only the Pirates as well. They also played in more one-run games than any other team in MLB and went just 28-30 in those contests.

For the first time in franchise history, Colorado has a bona fide ace in Ubaldo Jiminez, who exploded onto the scene early last year by pitching a no-hitter vs. Atlanta on April 17th. He had an ERA under 1.00 until June 11 and allowed only 164 hits in 221.2 IP Overall, the Rockies were 22-11 in his 33 starts. Colorado pitchers also set a franchise record with 1,234 strikeouts and 138 of them came from Jhoulys Chacin, the most ever by a Rockies rookie.

At the plate, this team is strong with SS Troy Tulowitzki, also a Gold Glover, who hit 27 HR and had 95 RBI. Also, Carlos Gonzalez kind of came out of nowhere with a .336 batting average to go along with 34 HR and 117 RBI.

The Rockies are our pick for the Wild Card. Prediction: 90 wins.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West Odds: +300 | Odds to Win National League: 16/1 | World Series Odds: 35/1 | Futures Odds: 84 wins)

The Dodgers aren’t terrible, but as long as the ridiculous McCourt divorce continues to play out, the franchise is not going to prosper. They have a new manager in Don Mattingly after averaging 86.3 wins in three seasons under Joe Torre. Donnie Baseball is the fourth manager for the club in the eight years the McCourt’s have owned the team.

Ace Clayton Kershaw did lead all NL southpaws in strikeouts last season with 212. Overall, the Dodgers used 10 different starters in 2010 and the depth is just not there. However, since Rick Honeycutt became pitching coach in 2006, the Dodgers staff has the lowest ERA in all of baseball at 3.90.

The heart of the order remains the same with Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp. Ethier was having a good season before breaking his finger. Kemp is off a down year.

This team has .500 written all over it. Prediction: 81 wins.

4. San Diego Padres (NL West Odds: +1100 | Odds to Win National League: 25/1 | World Series Odds: 55/1 | Futures Odds: 75.5 wins)

Usually when a team spends 148 days in first place and doesn’t make the postseason, the season has to be considered an unmitigated disaster. But for San Diego, a team that was projected for last place in the NL West by just about everybody, winning 90 games for only the fourth time in franchise history has to be considered somewhat of an accomplishment. Still, after losing ten straight games and 23 of 37 overall, they missed out on the playoffs by falling to the Giants on the final day of the regular season and they will probably see their 2011 win total drop more than just about any other team in baseball.

The Padres do have an abundance of pitching. Their relievers led MLB with a 2.81 ERA last year while only issuing 2.9 walks per nine innings and striking out 9.6. The staff pitched 20 shutouts, which matched a franchise record. Ace Mat Latos set a MLB record with 15 straight starts allowing two runs or fewer. San Diego also led the NL in fielding percentage.

Hitting is going to be a problem, however, as it always is in pitcher friendly Petco Park and it certainly doesn’t help that Adrian Gonzalez left as was expected.

This team is a lock for fourth place: Prediction: 75 wins.

5. Arizona Diamondbacks (NL West Odds: +1800 | Odds to Win National League: 45/1 | World Series Odds: 100/1 | Futures Odds: 72.5 wins)

This is a very bad team that has finished in the division cellar in each of the last two seasons. Still, they do have some talent offensively and hired Kevin Towers, who has a history of rebuilding jobs, as GM. During his tenure with division rival San Diego, the Padres won four division titles in 14 seasons. There could be as many as 10 new players on the Opening Day roster.

Arizona batters set a MLB record with 1,529 strikeouts last season, blowing by the old record set by Milwaukee in 2001 by 130 K’s. Four D’backs hit 25 or more home runs last year, but two are gone. Chris Young and Justin Upton will lead the offense this year.

Pitching will be a problem though as Arizona relievers had a woeful 5.74 ERA. They traded away ace Dan Haren mid-season and need Daniel Hudson to step up like he did in the final two months of last season when only two NL pitchers (Oswalt, Zambrano) had a better ERA.

Prediction: 69 wins.

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