2011 NFC South Preview
by Lenny Del Genio
Since 2002’s realignment, the NFC South has been an interesting division with no repeat winners and the prior year’s last place team continuously showing marked improvement.
1. New Orleans Saints
Prediction: 11-5, Division Champs
Odds: O/U 10 wins | +120 to win NFC South | +600 to win NFC | +1450 to win Super Bowl
Analysis: The Saints were never really a threat to repeat as Super Bowl Champs last year as they failed to resemble the team that won the Lombardi Trophy the previous season. They did make the playoffs, but things ended in humiliating fashion with a historic playoff loss at Seattle, a game New Orleans came into as the largest road favorite of any NFL Playoff game in history. This has the feeling of a team with one last run in it and we feel that last year’s early exit will serve as motivation. Gone is Reggie Bush, but he was overrated anyway and in our opinion, the Saints have made a major upgrade at the RB position by drafting Mark Ingram out of Alabama and bringing in Darren Sproles from San Diego. They also have holdover Pierre Thomas. During the lockout, QB Drew Brees did a good job of organizing team workouts with close to 40 players attending. The defense needs to get back to doing what it does best under coordinator Greg Williams and that’s blitz the QB and create turnovers. Considering there has never been a repeat winner in the history of the NFC South, the Saints get the slight nod over the Falcons to bag the division.
2. Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: 11-5, Wild Card
Odds: O/U 10.5 wins | +120 to win NFC South | +600 to win NFC | +1200 to win Super Bowl
Analysis: The good news if you are an Atlanta fan is that the team has produced winning campaigns in all three years of the HC Mike Smith/QB Matt Ryan regime, a nice achievement for a franchise that had never had back to back winning seasons previously. They have also covered the spread in 62% of games, including 22-11 ATS last two years, which is exceptional. The bad news is that the Falcons have zero playoff wins during this time span. It was pretty clear that the team was never as good as its 13-3 regular season record (8-0 at home) would seem to indicate, but maybe it was a case of just running into the “wrong team at the wrong time” with last year’s bad playoff loss (at home) to eventual Super Bowl Champion Green Bay. While the Falcons will not have a better record in 2011, they could definitely be better, similar to what we saw from Pittsburgh in 2005, who won the Super Bowl as a Wild Card after going 15-1 in the regular season the year before that. Working against them is the fact that no NFC South team has ever repeated as division champs. The betting odds clearly indicate that the linesmakers view the Saints and Falcons as essentially even, but the history of the division is why we’re picking Atlanta second. They made a bold move trading up to select WR Julio Jones of Alabama in April and we liked it. This team had only 44 plays of 20 yards or longer, which was last in the league. Criticized for failing to address defense in the draft, they signed Ray Edwards to upgrade the pass rush. They will win a playoff game this year.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: 8-8
Odds: O/U 8.5 wins | +350 to win NFC South | +1500 to win NFC | +3000 to win Super Bowl
Analysis: Last year we got a lot of weird looks when we predicted the Bucs would be the most improved team in the NFL. History suggested this would be the case as the team finished 3-13 and in last place of the NFC South, a position that you actually shouldn’t mind being at in this division. That’s because we had seen worst to first finishes in this division every year but one time, including New Orleans winning the Super Bowl the previous year. The one exception was Atlanta in 2008, who was on the heels of the Mike Vick dog fighting fallout, but still went 11-5 and made the Wild Card. Incredibly, not only were the Bucs the most improved team in the league last year, but they actually outperformed our expectations. Yet shockingly at 10-6, they did not make the playoffs! This year, we figure that most will be buyers on the Bucs, but our enthusiasm has been tempered as its unlikely they can outperform or surpass 2010. We really do like QB Josh Freeman a lot and RB Blount appears to be a possible breakout star. Freeman has already ushered seven fourth quarter comebacks wins in a year and a half as starter. After not being favored in a single game in 2009, the Bucs were favored six times in 2010. But the Bucs did win five games by three points or less and that kind of stat usually leads to fewer victories the following year.
4. Carolina Panthers
Prediction: 5-11
Odds: O/U 4.5 wins | +2000 to win NFC South | +10000 to win NFC | +18000 to win Super Bowl
Analysis: The Panthers have regressed in frightening fashion the last two years, going from 12 to 8 to 2 wins. Doesn’t it seem just like yesterday that Jake Delhomme was throwing all those INT’s in that awful playoff game vs. Arizona? The betting odds once again indicate that Carolina is the worst team in the NFL, but history suggests they will improve by leaps and bounds this season! Just see our Tampa Bay writeup for evidence of that as last place finishers in the NFC South have come back to win the division the following year six of eight seasons and the two that did not won 11 and 10 games respectively. So, it is not unrealistic to expect the Panthers to be one of the more improved teams in football, simply because there is so much room to improve. Number one overall draft choice Cam Newton is likely to open the season as the starting QB. Comparing Newton to JaMarcus Russell is ridiculous as far as we’re concerned. Other than the fact that both are black QB’s out of the SEC, the two have nothing in common. Newton was the best player on a National Championship team last season. All Russell ever did was play one good half against a very overrated Notre Dame team in a bowl game. So, that’s that. The problem with picking Carolina do continue the trend we’ve seen in the NFC South is that the lockout really is going to hurt teams with new QB’s and first year head coaches. The Panthers have both. They also have the hardest schedule in the league by the numbers as opponents combined for a 142-114 SU mark in 2010. This was not a good team to bet on either last season with a 4-12 ATS mark.
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