2011 NFC East Preview
by Lenny Del Genio
1. Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: 12-4, NFC Runners-Up
Odds: O/U 10.5 wins | -200 to win NFC East | +275 to win NFC | +600 to win Super Bowl
Analysis: The Eagles were a team most already liked and that was before they were the clear winners of free agency. Now, they find themselves as co-favorites to win the NFC alongside defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay. Free agent acquisitions included: QB Vince Young, RB Ronnie Brown, DL Cullen Jenkins and of course the biggest prize was CB Nnamdi Asomugha. Then, there was the big (and expected) trade of QB Kevin Kolb to Arizona for CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2012 second-round draft choice. On paper, this is probably Andy Reid’s strongest team ever, which is really saying something considering Philadelphia has bagged six of the last 10 NFC East titles, including last year, in what is supposedly the toughest division in football. They have lost no more than six regular season games any of the previous three seasons. No one could have forecasted the Eagles’ 2010 season as most were calling for a rebuilding year with Kolb stepping in for Donovan McNabb, but he got injured in the very first game and in came Mike Vick, who produced a remarkable comeback year. That included one of the finest fantasy stat lines of all-time on a Monday night vs. Washington, accounting for six touchdowns and over 400 yards total offense. He has a lot of help at the skill positions and it is mostly young with RB LeSean McCoy and WR’s Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. However, we were a bit worried by what we saw down the stretch as they dropped four of their final seven, including a home playoff loss to Green Bay. The offensive line will likely start a pair of rookies. On the defensive side of the ball, the secondary is now a major strength, the only issue is where will everyone play? The defensive line, particularly DE Cole, will benefit from the arrival of new coach Jim Washburn, who comes over from Tennessee. The weak spot on the defense is at linebacker. On sheer talent alone, the Eagles will win this division and are a definite threat to win the Super Bowl.
2. Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card
Odds: O/U 9 Wins | +300 Odds to win NFC East | +1000 to win NFC | +1500 to win Super Bowl
Analysis: We view the Cowboys’ 6-10 campaign last year as a ‘worst case scenario’ as QB Tony Romo was lost for the year in Game 5, followed by a mid-season coaching change from the always confused Wade Phillips to Jerry Jones-anointed genius Jason Garrett. America’s Team did go 5-3 under Garrett with all three losses coming by a field goal or less. They also averaged more than 28 points per game in the second half of the season, second best in the league. The defense allowed 30 points or more in half of their games last season, so perhaps the most important change on the coaching staff was bringing in Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan, who had far less talent to work with in Cleveland and still had some success. His arrival will usher in a new 3-4 scheme and you can expect plenty of blitzing. This is a team that will clearly win more games in 2011. There is plenty of talent on both sides of the football despite a few cap casualties. Beyond Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, they probably need a third WR to emerge and the offensive line has to improve. Bettors beware of the Cowboys as a Monday night favorite of seven points or less. They are 0-7 ATS in that role.
3. New York Giants
Prediction: 9-7
Odds: O/U 9.5 Wins | +350 to win NFC East | +1000 to win NFC | +2200 to win Super Bowl
Analysis: The Giants are consistent, yet made few changes, which actually makes them a difficult team to evaluate this year. Did you know that this team has not had a losing season since 2004? Despite that, they really haven’t accomplished all that much save for that stunning Super Bowl victory over the Patriots at the end of the 2007 season. Other than that run, they have no playoff wins under Tom Coughlin, whose tired act is beginning to wear out. There is internal strife within the organization due to the Osi Umenyiora contract situation, but he may be expendable anyways due to the emergence of DE Jason Pierre-Paul. However, the real issue has become that no matter which way you slice it, Eli Manning has not been the same since Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg and went to jail. Is Hakeem Nicks ready to become elite? Each of the last two seasons have seen the G-Men get off to great starts (5-0 and 6-2), but neither resulted in a playoff appearance. If you thought last year’s 2-6 ATS finish was bad, remember that in ’09, the Giants went 2-9 ATS down the stretch. This was one of two 10-6 NFC teams that did not make the playoffs in 2010 due to the pathetic NFC West having to send its division champ. The secondary has long been a concern and things got worse with a season ending injury to CB Terrelle Thomas. This has been a great road team to bet on the last three years, going 24-12 straight up and 25-11 ATS. The schedule starts easy with only one .500 or better team from last year featured in the first seven games. To improve, they must cut down on last year’s turnover total, which was an ungodly 42, worst in the league.
4. Washington Redskins
Prediction: 4-12
Odds: O/U 6 Wins | +2500 to win NFC East | +5000 to win NFC | + 10,000 to win Super Bowl
Analysis: As bad as last season was with the Donovan McNabb experiment having to be chalked up as a total failure, it’s easy to forget that 2010 was actually an improvement over the end of the ill-fated Jim Zorn era in 2009! And as bad as last season was in the Nation’s Capital, things appear to be getting a whole lot worse this season. The Beltway has been a total mess recently with Democrats and Republicans squabbling, but it appears as if the Redskins are actually making less progress than our esteemed Congress. Head Coach Mike Shanahan seems to be the only guy to think he’s still the smartest person in the room as he has done nothing to back up his vaunted reputation since John Elway retired more than ten years ago. Since 2005, he is just 30-34 straight up and 22-39-4 ATS. The QB situation here looks about as dire as anywhere in the league not named Cincinnati. John Beck, Rex Grossman and rookie Ben Chappel are the kind of unattractive candidates we’re used to seeing in Washington. They will be throwing to six different receivers that have one year of experience or less. Three-quarters of last year’s games were decided by six points or less with the Skins going an even 6-6 SU (8-1-3 ATS). It would not be surprising to see this team fail to win a single division game, but the non-division schedule ranks as second easiest in the league.
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