2011 AFC East Preview
by Lenny Del Genio
1. New York Jets
Prediction: 12-4, AFC Champs
Odds: O/U 10 Wins | +160 to Win AFC East | +625 to Win AFC | +1300 to Win Super Bowl
Analysis: I don’t understand all the talk of the Jets being “overrated”. If that were the case, then what would one say about 29 other teams each of the last two seasons? All the Flyboys have done in two years of the Ryan/Sanchez regime is make back to back AFC Title Games. Two years ago, they completely overachieved when no one was expecting anything. Last season, they came in with a bulls-eye on their back and met our expectations, which was losing to an AFC North team (albeit a different one than thought – we had Baltimore) in the Conference Championship. In those two playoff runs, they have posted four road wins, including back to back weeks last season over Indianapolis and New England with HC Rex Ryan demonstrating why he just might be the best coach in the NFL badly outcoaching both Jim Caldwell and Bill Belichick. For Mark Sanchez, this is year three as a starter, which is generally when a QB makes the leap if he’s ever going to (see Aaron Rodgers LY). While he may produce ugly stats, you have to like Sanchez’s playmaking ability late in games, see late wins over Detroit and Cleveland last year for evidence. The team did lose a bit at the skill positions with the departures of Braylon Edwards and Brad Smith. However, if Plaxico Burress produces, that will not matter. RB Shonn Greene gets his chance to be a feature back behind a very good run-blocking line. The defense under Ryan will again be one of the best in the league. The unit was one of only three stop units to hold four different opponents to season lows in total yardage. Revis Island takes away half of the field, which is a huge luxury. The Jets are the pick to win the AFC.
2. New England Patriots
Prediction: 11-5, Wild Card
Odds: O/U 11.5 Wins | -170 to win AFC East | +275 to win AFC | + 600 to Win Super Bowl
Analysis: Headed into last year, I made the terrible (and uncharacteristic) mistake of underestimating Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, questioning whether or not the Patriots would be a playoff team. Fresh in my mind was a terrible home playoff loss to Baltimore the year prior. I looked really bad after the team finished the regular season 14-2 with the best point differential in the league and Tom Brady was named unanimous MVP. However, I was then redeemed as for a second straight year New England was ‘one and done’ in the playoffs, suffering another embarrassing home loss, this time to the Jets. The Patriots have won 35 of 48 regular season games the past three seasons, but have zero postseason wins to show for it. In fact, they have lost three straight playoff games going back to the Super Bowl disaster against the Giants and their last playoff win was at home against San Diego in the 2007 AFC Championship in the semi-infamous game where LT appeared to give up in the cold while QB Rivers carried the team on a broken ankle. Therefore, is it fair to ask if the Patriots, a Belichick coached team mind you, is simply built for the regular season? I think so. I also think the free agent signings of WR Ochocinco and DT Haynesworth are overblown and the mystique of the Belichick rebuilding project is now more myth than reality. Randy Moss had one good season in New England and was still young and in his prime. There is still plenty of talent here though to make the postseason for a ninth time since ’01, so I won’t be making the same mistake as last year. Note that New England’s 2010 offensive and defensive stats were actually worse than 2009’s 10-6 team. Brady has not lost a regular season home game since 2006.
3. Buffalo Bills
Prediction: 6-10
Odds: O/U 5 Wins | +3000 to win AFC East | +8000 to win AFC | +16000 to win Super Bowl
Analysis: After getting very sick of the Bills in the 90’s and their four consecutive Super Bowl appearances (and losses), it is shocking to note that this is one of only three teams in the league to have zero playoff appearances over the previous decade. Buffalo has become the equivalent of NFL Siberia (or its version of the NBA’s Toronto Raptors), where no free agents want to go and I really have to temper any enthusiasm about this group. Playing in the AFC East (where there is a clear divide between the haves and have-nots) does not help, particularly when you consider they are 3-15 SU and 6-12 ATS vs division foes the last three years. Last year, I called the Bills the worst team in football before the season and it looked like I was right after a 0-9 start, but they wound up actually exceeding expectations by finishing third worst with a 4-5 finish and played hard for 1st yr HC Chan Gailey. They did have five losses by five points or less, which does usually signal an upswing. I do not see Ryan Fitzpatrick as a long term solution at QB. The defense was atrocious last year, surrendering 34 points or more in half of the games and simply drafting Marcell Dareus is not going to cure that as they undergo a change to a 3-4. This group allowed a hideous 4.8 yards per rush last season, worst in the league. The 2011 schedule is ranked second hardest in the league according to opponent’s won-loss record from last season (137-119).
4. Miami Dolphins
Prediction: 4-12
Odds: O/U 8 Wins | +800 to win AFC East | +2000 to win AFC | +5500 to win Super Bowl
Analysis: Quite frankly, I am shocked at the oddsmakers’ projection of eight wins here and equally embarrassed regarding my optimistic outlook on this team at this point last year. The bloom is clearly off the Chad Henne rose and I’m stunned that the front office felt Denver was asking too much in a potential deal for Kyle Orton. I viewed Running Back as a real strength for the Dolphins last year, but the platoon of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams has departed and replaced with Reggie Bush, who I feel is a highly overrated acquisition. You’re telling me that a great offensive mind like Saints HC Sean Payton would simply let Bush go? Not likely. Speaking of bad FA acquisitions, WR Brandon Marshall was a total bust, the latest in a long line of disappointing Dolphins receivers. It is well known that management wanted to get rid of HC Tony Sparano, but couldn’t find a better replacement, essentially giving Sparano ‘lame duck’ status. Last season was a very bizarre season on South Beach as the Fish won only one home game, but went 6-2 on the road. That was the first time in NFL history that a team won five more road games than home games in the same season! They have also struggled down the stretch, ending the last two regular seasons on three-game SU losing streaks. When all is said and done, this could be the worst team in the AFC.
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