NBA: 2010 Eastern Conference Preview
by Lenny Del Genio
Lenny finished the 2009-10 NBA Season 21 games OVER .500 and he put out well over 300 plays! He started last year in **RED HOT** fashion, winning eight of his first nine selections & never looked back! Don't miss a single NBA pick that this former linesmaker releases when you purchase a weekly or monthly subscription package!
A new season of NBA betting tips off on Tuesday and former linesmaker Lenny Del Genio offers a preview of the Eastern Conference.
The NBA's Eastern Conference contains three of the league's best four teams, but after that has little in the way of quality basketball. In fact, by our projections, there might be as few as six teams that finish with a winning record at regular season's end.
The Miami Heat have the highest future odds in recent NBA betting history with oddsmakers calling for 64.5 regular season wins thanks to the high-profile additions of LeBron James and Chris Bosh, who team up with team leader Dwyane Wade to comprise the strongest nucleus of any team in the league. The preseason did not give these three "super friends" much time to familiarize themselves with one another as they were on the court together for a combined 197 seconds. Depth is the only other major concern with the team carrying the league minimum of 15 players. A lack of size up front could also potentially hurt them against Boston and Orlando come playoff time. The Heat broke even last year at the betting window (43-43-1 ATS including playoffs) and will probably be a losing proposition this year due to the inflated lines they are likely to face. They were an 'Under' team as well with a 46-39-1 mark thanks to the second-best field goal percentage defense in the league (.439). James and Bosh weren't the only additions Miami made in the offseason as Mike Miller (injured thumb), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (old LeBron buddy from Cleveland), Eddie House and Juwan Howard were all brought in to fill various roles. Udonis Haslem was also resigned. They added three players via the second round of the draft (Da'Sean Butler, Jarvis Varnado and Patrick Beverley). The Heat will have a chip on their shoulder and finish with the best regular season record in the league.
Following the Heat closely will be the Orlando Magic, who have made the Eastern Conference Finals each of the past three seasons and have the fourth most regular season wins in the league over that span. In fact, there is a decent chance the Southeast Division, easily the best in the NBA, could produce a pair of 60-win teams (Magic have won 59 each of L2 years). The fact that Dwight Howard spent some time at the Hakeem Olajuwon Summer Camp sounds promising. The rest of the nucleus remains the same with Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter. Nelson's health is key as he has missed nearly 100 games the past six seasons. Everyone knocks Carter, but he actually had the seventh-best points per 48 minutes in the last five minutes of games separated by five points or less. He remains the team's best offensive option at crunch time thanks to Howard's free throw woes (83 straight regular season games w/ missed FT). Howard's presence in the middle gives them a big edge over division rivals Miami and Atlanta. His 348 double-doubles since 2004-05 is the most in the league and 43.3% of his career field goal makes have come on dunks. There were really no key additions, so they'll need a bounce-back year from Lewis. Note that this team was an astounding 23-0 straight up when shooting 50% or better from the floor. Not sure if preseason means anything, but the Magic were 7-0 SU with an point differential of +25.0 PPG (won L21 preseason games overall). Last year saw the team set a NBA record for most three-pointers made and G JJ Redick figures to play more. Orlando was a huge cash cow for Under bettors, going 55-38-3 (including playoffs) and a big money maker overall, going 52-37-7 ATS.
The Boston Celtics, despite their age, are a lock to win the weak Atlantic Division. Last year, they phoned in the regular season, finishing fourth in the conference, but the joke was on the rest of the league as they got healthy at the right time, upset top-seeded Cleveland and were probably a Kendrick Perkins injury away (yes, really!) from winning their second NBA title in three years. Because they played just .500 ball over the final 54 regular season games and still did what they did, don't look for a 60-win regular season this year. Still this year's team is actually better on paper despite the decline of the "Big Three." Paul Pierce played only 34 minutes per game last season, his lowest number since his rookie season. Ray Allen had his fewest three-point FG makes (145) in any season in which he played at least 50 games since 1997-98. Kevin Garnett just needs to be healthy in time for the playoffs. All three averaged their fewest PPG since their rookie seasons. However, none of that really matters as it's clearly Rajon Rondo's (15.8 PPG, 9.5 APG in LY's playoffs) team now. He's the best guard in the conference with the exception of Wade. His shooting percentage on shots between 10 and 15 feet from the hoop was .469 last season. He averaged nearly 5.5 shot attempts per game "at the rim" LY, making .642 percent of those. There were some savvy veteran free agent pieces added in the offseason such as Shaquille O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal and Nate Robinson, all of whom should fit in well. The Celtics were money burners last year going 49-57 ATS (and the regular season mark was much worse) and they had an identical O/U record (in favor of the Under).
The Chicago Bulls should finally live up to their potential and notch their first division title since the Jordan era. Of course, coming off a loss in the "greatest first round series ever played" (vs. Celtics in 2009), improvement was expected LY and the team finished just 41-41 SU and eighth in a weak Eastern Conference. They became the first team in league history to lose 10 consecutive games during the regular season and still make the playoffs. There was a coaching change in the offseason with Vinny Del Negro hitting the bricks and former Celtics assistant Tom Thibodeau takes over. That should be an easy upgrade. The talent was upgraded as well as after missing out on LeBron James, they added F Carlos Boozer, G Ronnie Brewer and F/G Kyle Korver, all from the Utah Jazz. Boozer, Joakim Noah and Luol Deng give the Bulls the best front line in the conference. Of course, Boozer is hurt already (pinky finger) and will be out the first month. Noah had four games of 20 or more rebounds last season and Boozer's 55 double-doubles was third best in the league. No Bulls player shot better than 39% from behind the 3-point arc LY, so Korver and his .536 average will be welcome. We like this team over the future odds of 46.5 wins. Will there really only be three teams in the East to win 50+ games? That seems like too few. Like every other top team in the East, they leaned to the Under LY (46-39-2) and turned a slight profit at 46-41 ATS.
The Milwaukee Bucks were the most improved team in the conference last year (+12 wins from '08-'09) thanks in large part to the emergence of rookie Brandon Jennings and the mid-season acquisition of the versatile John Salmons. After trading for Salmons, the team would go on to win 22 of its final 30 regular season games, so that's why he was resigned. Center Andrew Bogut was having a career year (15.9 PPG, 10.2 RPG) before hurting his arm in April. He also ranked second in the league in blocks. G Michael Redd has missed a total of 51 games the past two seasons. Keeping those two healthy is paramount to the team's continued improvement. Defense and turnovers were the reasons for the turnaround LY. They allowed just 96 PPG last year, a franchise record. The 15.3 turnovers forced per game ranked fourth best in the league. That is a direct result of the coaching of Scott Skiles, who can wear thin with his players after awhile. Their offensive field goal percentage of .436 ranked next to last. Jennings has to get to the free throw line more often as the team opened last season by shooting less free throws than its opponent in the first 23 games. Free agent additions included Corey Maggette and Drew Gooden, playing for his ninth team in eight seasons. Loved the draft pick of 6'11" Larry Sanders out of Virginia Commonwealth. After the "Fear the Dear" campaign struck such a chord locally with fans down the stretch last year, they should be wary of "Fear the Contract Year." Will all of these career journeyman continue to perform after all getting paid in the offseason? We look for them to push Chicago in the Central Division. This group was a huge money maker last season (56-31-2 ATS) and also was a slight Under team (47-42).
The Atlanta Hawks have improved their win total each of the last five seasons, reaching 53 last season, but things did not end well with a four-game sweep at the hands of division rival Orlando in the second round, which cost former HC Mike Woodson his job (led after just 1 of 16 possible quarters). He was one of three Eastern Conference coaches to get his team to the playoffs only to by fired. Assistant Larry Drew, who worked with Woodson for six seasons, takes over at the helm. Leading scorer Joe Johnson was resigned to a max deal, which was curious given how everyone expected him to walk. The starting five, plus Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford, remains strong, but there is little depth after that. The frontcourt - Josh Smith, Al Horford and Marvin Williams - is a trio of 24 year olds that have started together now for three consecutive seasons. The plus-minus rating when Johnson was on the court with Horford and Smith was +351, which was tied for second best among any three-man combo in the league. Smith became the youngest player in league history with 1,000 career blocks. Crawford had more points than any other non-starter in the league and his 28 career four-point plays is a league record. We think there will be a drop in the standings this year after a season where they went 50-40-3 ATS and 51-41-1 Over.
The much-heralded 2010 offseason came and went and the New York Knicks didn't land LeBron James after all. However, they did sign F Amare Stoudemire, a decent prize nonetheless, and getting Raymond Felton is a huge upgrade at the point guard position. The dealings may not be done as it is widely believed the Knicks could acquire Carmello Anthony in a trade with the Nuggets, which would guarantee the club to end its six-year playoff drought. With or without Anthony, we think they'll be back in the postseason. Many sportsbooks have actually taken down their future odds of 35.5 wins because there was so much action on the Over, a wager we happened to agree with. Stoudemire's five All Star appearances is four more than the combined appearances of all Knicks players since 2001 (and David Lee was an injury replacement last year). He reunites with former Phoenix HC Mike D'Antoni here. In five seasons playing for D'Antoni, he averaged 23.1 PPG. Interesting to note that in two seasons, the Knicks have won just 61 games, a total which D'Antoni won twice in single seasons with the Suns in his tenure there. However, improvement on the defensive end is what will determine this team's fate. They allowed 100 points or more 56 times last season and lost 45 of those games. Keep an eye on forward Danilo Gallinari, whose 186 three-pointers made LY was second most in the league and #2 all-time for a season in franchise history. The Knicks lost money last year at 39-42-1 ATS and were 41-40-1 Under. If they don't make the playoffs this year, then when will they?
The Charlotte Bobcats made the playoffs for the first time in franchise history (2002-) last season, but were promptly swept by the Orlando Magic, allowing 45 three-pointers in the four games. Michael Jordan is the first former player to ever become a majority owner of a NBA team, but you have to wonder how much of the front-office strategy is coming from the 17th tee at Sawgrass. The team is probably worse than last year, but it won't take more than 38 wins to get the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. HC Larry Brown should get them to that plateau. In 25 years of NBA head coaching, Brown has gotten his teams to the playoffs 18 times. There have already been 11 trades made during his tenure or an average of one every two months, so roster stability should be an asset this year. Gerald Wallace averaged the second most minutes per game last season (41.0). This was a very good home team last year at 31-10 SU (eighth best in the league), which also means they were very bad on the road. Steven Jackson will again be the leading scorer. The loss of Felton hurts at PG where DJ Augustin is a major downgrade. Shaun Livingston and Kwame Brown (whom Jordan drafted #1 while with Washington) are both being considered reclamation projects). The Bobcats were #1 in the league in points allowed (93.8 PPG) in 2009-10, but third worst in points scored (95.3 PPG). Because of all the low totals, this was actually an Over team last season (43-40-3) and they did make money at 43-39-4 ATS.
Now we are into what we feel will be the non-playoff teams. Finishing last in the tough Southeast Division will be the Washington Wizards, who should be much improved from last year's 26-win campaign, which was preceded by an injury ravaged 19-63 mark in 2008-09. The Gilbert Arenas saga was a major distraction LY and he could end up being dealt. He's played just 47 out of a possible 246 games since 2007-08. Antawn Jamison has already been dealt and gone too is Caron Butler. Now the team starts over with new HC Flip Saunders. However, the real good news was that the franchise landed the #1 draft pick John Wall, who averaged 23.5 PPG and 7.8 APG in Summer League play. If Arenas can stay healthy and keep the guns put away, the Wizards will have one of the better backcourts in the conference. Kirk Hinrich was brought in after a season where his field goal percentage dipped to .409, his worst in any season since 2004-05. This team lost money last season at 35-46-1 ATS and was a huge winner for Under bettors at 51-30-1.
Also improved should be the New Jersey Nets. Of course, when you go a league worst 12-70 SU, improvement shouldn't be hard to come by. They started the 2009-10 season with 18 straight losses and were outrebounded in their first 23 games. They ranked dead last in the league in points scored, field goal percentage and assists. They had exactly one road win all year after trailing or being tied at the end of the first quarter. The good news is they are starting completely over and that begins at the top with new owner Mikhail Prokhorov, a Russian billionaire. He hired a new head coach, Avery Johnson, whose .735 career win percentage in the regular season is the best in the league history. Derrick Favors was taken with the third overall pick in the Draft. He will team up with Brooke Lopez, who averaged 18.8 PPG last year, the most ever by a Nets center. Lopez has not missed a single game in two seasons, a fry cry from PG Devin Harris, who has missed 31 over that span and will be reunited with former HC Johnson here. The two clashed while in Dallas. SG Terrence Williams looked good during the Summer League. This team should double last season's win total. They were 43-37-2 Under last year while losing a boat load of cash at 33-47-2 ATS.
Cleveland, on the other hand, figures to take the biggest fall of any team in the league thanks to the painful loss of LeBron James. They won 60+ games each of the last two seasons and could be lucky to win half of that total this year. It's interesting to note that was the first time in NBA history that the same team won 60+ games in BB seasons and did not make the Finals either time. Over the last five seasons, the franchise won eight playoff series after winning just four in its first 35 years in existence. They lost 47.3% of the scoring from last year. There was only one game where James did not lead the team in either scoring, rebounds or assists. Since 2007, they were 1-13 SU without James in the lineup. They do have a $14.5 million trade exception that they can use, which is one positive. Without James, the remaining roster is filled with role players used to standing and watching James do his thing. Facing big spreads last season, Cleveland went 42-49-2 ATS and was 48-42-3 Over.
Indiana should compete with Cleveland for a distant third place in the Central Division. This is a pretty boring team outside of All Star forward Danny Granger, who joined Pacers legend Reggie Miller as the only players in franchise history to post four consecutive seasons with 100+ three-pointers made. Only three Pacers posted positive plus-minus ratios last season and none were Granger. The starting lineup of Granger, TJ Ford, Brandon Rush, Troy Murphy and Roy Hibbert, which the team used on opening night last year, went 0-7 SU. Indiana has posted five straight non-winning seasons overall and last year's 32-50 SU mark was the team's worst since 1989. In the offseason, they did acquire Darren Collison, who previously backed up Chris Paul in New Orleans and is a major upgrade at PG. They were 40-39-3 ATS last season and 43-38-1 Under.
People are calling for an improvement with a Philadelphia 76ers squad that won just 28 games last year and made a coaching change from Eddie Jordan to Doug Collins. However, count us in the camp that feels #2 overall DC Evan Turner will be a bust. He did not look good in summer league action. Why Jordan had this roster running a Princeton offense last year is beyond us. They were also 12-29 SU at home, which is terrible. They and the Celtics were the only two teams in the league to post more wins on the road than at home. The big offseason move was a trade with Sacramento that sent Samuel Dalembert packing in exchange for Spencer Hawes and Andres Nocioni. When that's your big offseason move, look out. Three-point shooting was a problem last year as the team ranked just 22nd in the league (.343). They were 41-39-2 Under while killing backers with a 34-47-1 ATS mark.
The Detroit Pistons are off their worst finish since 1994. Look for them to be even worse in 2010-11. Joe Dumars is a horrible GM. Last year's signings of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva were terrible. Gordon shot just .321 from behind the three-point arc last season after making at least 40% of his attempts his previous five seasons with the Bulls. This once proud championship contender simply has not been the same since dealing Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson, one of the worst NBA trades of the past decade. No team has averaged fewer points over the past two years (94.1 PPG) than the Pistons. This is because they no longer have any good inside players. Thus they were quite happy to have seven-footer Greg Monroe of Georgetown fall to them with the seventh pick in the draft. We love taking this team Under the future odds of 31 wins. They were a horrible 35-46-1 ATS last season and 42-39-1 Over.
The Toronto Raptors absolutely stink and they figure to stink even worse without Chris Bosh. They have just three playoff wins (not series wins, that's just games won) in the last eight seasons and were the third worst defensive team in the league last year. Perhaps the most interesting anecdote we can share about this team is the following: Bench player Marcus Banks (who not coincidentally was on the bench at the time) received a technical foul late in the game in a March 20th win over New Jersey. When the official asked Banks for his number, he had to unzip his warmup jacket to find out what it is. This is the worst team in the league and we love them Under the 26.5 win total. They were actually a big Over team last year (46-35-1) and went 39-42-1 ATS.
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