Kansas City (41.5) at Jacksonville (-6.5) – The Jaguars have to rank as the worst favorite to bet on in the entire NFL with a 1-9 ATS record the last 10 times they’ve been laying points, including 0-7 vs. the number here at home. They come off a loss to Tennessee, which gave the Titans their first win of 2009. Still, that hasn’t stopped oddsmakers from installing Jacksonville as a 6.5-point favorite over a Kansas City team that is just 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS and one of the worst teams in the league. The Chiefs are off a bye and are 18-6 ATS on the road off a win by 10 or more.

Baltimore (-3) at Cincinnati (43.5) – This is a big revenge game for the Ravens, who lost as nine-point home favorites to the Bengals, 17-14, in the final seconds in Week 5. Baltimore got a big win last week vs. previously unbeaten Denver snapping a three-game losing streak. They are now 10-2 ATS as a favorite under HC John Harbaugh. Cincinnati is tied with Pittsburgh for the division lead and off its bye week, which may not be a good thing they are just 4-9 ATS the L13 times they’ve played with regular season rest. The favorite in this series is on a 5-0 SU run here in Cincinnati.

Houston (48.5) at Indianapolis (-9) – This is potentially the biggest game ever for the Texans franchise, which has won three straight and is 5-3 for the first time ever. This series has been completely dominated by the Colts (13-1 SU all-time), although they failed to cash in either meeting last year. Houston has never won in Indianapolis with the average loss coming by 18 PPG. This has also been an Over series with each of the last eight meetings averaging 56.1 PPG with none going Under and 48 being the fewest points scored.

Washington (41) at Atlanta (-10) – After playing four of their last five games on the road, Atlanta returns home on short week after Monday night’s loss to the Saints. The Falcons have been very good at home for HC Mike Smith, going 8-3 ATS at the Georgia Dome during his tenure. Before breaking loose vs. New Orleans, RB Turner was averaging just 3.4 YPC. Meanwhile, Washington has not been very good anywhere for Head Coach Jim Zorn. They are just 2-11-2 ATS the last 15 games and have scored more than 17 points just twice during that span. They are off a bye.

Green Bay (-10) at Tampa Bay (43.5) – Of all the bad teams in the league right now, the Bucs are clearly the worst. They have lost 11 straight games dating back to last season, including five in a row SU and ATS at home by an average of 13.6 PPG. They have had a week to recover from a 35-7 loss to the Patriots in London. Green Bay, meanwhile, probably needs another week to recover from a second loss to Brett Favre and the Vikings. They have a Monday Night game vs. Dallas on deck. Tampa Bay did beat the Packers last year, 30-21, here at home.

Arizona (44.5) at Chicago (-3) – Two 4-3 teams here trying to stay relevant in the NFC playoff picture. By virtue of playing in the weak NFC West, the Cardinals have a better shot at making the postseason, but after a bad 34-21 home loss to Carolina last week, winning this game would go a long way. Chicago had a very easy 30-6 win over Cleveland last week, their sixth straight win at Soldier Field (5-1 ATS). QB Cutler, in particular, plays much better at home (1 INT at home vs. 10 on the road). Arizona is on 5-0 ATS runs both on the road and in the underdog role.

Miami (46.5) at New England (-10.5) – All of a sudden we’re seeing the Patriots of old as they are off wins by 35-7 and 59-0 margins before the bye week. It should be pointed out that those wins did come against Tampa Bay and Tennessee. Miami is a perfect 4-0 SU (and ATS) on the division road under HC Sparano. New England, however, has won five straight division games by an average of 24.4 PPG. They are also on a 5-0 SU/ATS run as post-bye week favorite. Last year here, Miami won 38-13, the worst home loss for the Patriots in eight seasons.

Carolina (51.5) at New Orleans (-13) – The Saints are still unbeaten and will have to avoid the proverbial letdown off Monday night’s win over Atlanta. They are just 2-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games under HC Sean Payton. This series has been dominated by the road team (11-4 SU and 13-1-1 ATS L15), including Carolina’s 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS mark here in New Orleans. Payton’s team is 12-2 ATS as a favorite the last two seasons and coming off their first ATS loss of the season. The Panthers are just 3-9 ATS as road underdogs.

Detroit (42.5) at Seattle (-10) – The Lions are back to the bottom of the barrel after losing at home to previously winless St. Louis last week. They have lost 15 straight road games by an average of 16.1 PPG and are just 4-13 ATS the last 17 times they’ve visited an NFC West opponent (0-6 ATS L6). Seattle is a tough team to figure out in 2009 with both wins coming in shutout fashion and four of five losses coming by double-digits. While the Seahawks defense is getting healthier, the offensive line is down to its fourth different starting left tackle.

Tennessee (41) at San Francisco (-4) – The Titans are off their first win of the season while the Niners have lost three straight. In fact, San Francisco has zero victories outside of the division all season. This will be their first home game since October 11th. Under HC Singletary, they are 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS at home. Tennessee is 31-14 ATS in non-conference games under HC Fisher, but has been outscored by over 22 PPG in road contests this year. QB Vince Young has a career 19-11 SU mark as a starter.

San Diego (47.5) at NY Giants (-4.5) – This is an interesting battle of teams who had hoped to be off to better starts. Of course, the Chargers and Giants famously swapped QB’s Eli Manning and Philip Rivers on 2004 Draft Day and although the G-Men have a Super Bowl victory and San Diego does not, neither club would probably take the trade back. New York has lost three straight times for the first time since 2006. Of the Chargers four wins this season, three have come at the expense of the Raiders and Chiefs.

Dallas (49) at Philadelphia (-3) – This is a huge game in the NFC East Division where the winner will take sole possession of first place. Dallas has come from nowhere to win three straight, but is just 1-9 ATS on the road off a cover as double-digit favorite. This is a huge revenge game for the Cowboys, who lost 44-6 in the final regular season game of last year to decide the final NFC playoff berth. With that loss, America’s Team dropped to 2-8 SU and 3-6-1 ATS in Philadelphia since ’99. Seven of the last eight have gone Over with Philly averaging 31.4 PPG in those games.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Denver (39.5) – Big Monday nighter in the AFC. Denver is off its first loss of the season, but is 3-0 SU/ATS at home this year. Pittsburgh, off its bye, is 0-3 ATS on the road this season. The underdog has covered four straight in this head to head series and the Over has cashed six of the last seven. Pittsburgh is just 6-19 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less while Denver is 10-2 ATS in the home dog role. Broncos QB Kyle Orton has thrown just one INT this year (231 pass attempts) and that came on a Hail Mary attempt.

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