2009 NFL: Week 8 Preview
by Lenny Del Genio

Here are some key NFL betting angles for this week’s games. They are designed to aid you in your own handicapping ventures as we factor them into our own handicapping acumen, although they are not the sole basis for the plays. Be sure not to miss our 25* NFL Revenge Game of the Year on Sunday! We are on a 6-1 run with 25 star selections in College and NFL combined.
Denver (41.5) at Baltimore (-3) – Both teams are coming off bye weeks and both teams started the season 3-0. Unfortunately for the Ravens, while Denver has gone onto win three more games, they have lost three straight. The Ravens have been a good team coming off the bye, covering six of seven in this situation. Here’s something you probably don’t know; Ravens RB Ray Rice leads the league in total yards from scrimmage. Denver has the best defense in the league, allowing just 11 PPG. Baltimore and the Under have cashed five of the past six head to head meetings.
Cleveland (40) at Chicago (-13) – With so many bad teams in the NFL right now, we’ve been accustomed to multiple double-digit favorites every week. Such is the case with the hapless Browns, who are so bad that the 3-3 Bears are nearly two touchdown favorites here. QB Cutler has been much better at Soldier Field this year where he is 2-0 with 4 TD passes and zero INT’s (10 INT’s on the road). Cleveland, who has yet to score more than 20 points in any game this season, is 6-2-1 ATS in pre-bye week games, but 2-8-1 ATS off a loss. Both teams lost by 28+ points last week.
Houston (-3.5) at Buffalo (41.5) – Monitor the status of Texans WR Andre Johnson, who suffered a bruised lung in last week’s 24-21 win over San Francisco. For Houston, who alternated losses and wins through the first six games, it was the first time they’ve won BB games all season and they are now 4-3 for just the 2nd time in franchise history. Buffalo has also won back to back games, although they were outgained 425-167 last week at Carolina. The Bills have not won a pre-bye week game this decade. Houston is 4-16 ATS all-time on the road off a SU win and is 0-3 SU as a road favorite.
Minnesota (47) at Green Bay (-3) – The most anticipated rematch in NFL history as the first meeting, won by Favre and the Vikings, was the most watched sporting event in Cable TV history. The Vikings are off their first loss of the season and just 1-5 ATS L6 pre-bye week games. The home team has won four straight in this rivalry and Green Bay is on a 7-1 SU/ATS run as divisional hosts. Apparently, playing the Steelers takes something out of you as teams are 1-5 ATS this season the week after playing Pittsburgh. There will be an incredible amount of pressure on QB Rodgers here.
San Francisco (44.5) at Indianapolis (-13) – Another double-digit spread. The Colts have won 15 straight regular season games, but the Niners have covered six straight when getting points. For Indy, this is the first of three straight games at home, where they are just 4-8 ATS L12. San Francisco has lost BB games for the 1st time in the Mike Singletary era. Former #1 Overall DC Alex Smith takes over at QB for the 49ers. The Colts are a perfect 6-0 ATS coming off consecutive double-digit wins.
Miami (40.5) at NY Jets (-3.5) – If not for the Packers/Vikings game taking place this week, this rematch would likely be receiving more national attention considering all the trash talk that came out of the Dolphins 31-27 Monday Night victory three weeks ago. The Jets have dominated this AFC East rivalry since 1992, going 23-9 ATS, including 10-4-3 here at home. Miami is off a horrible loss last week to New Orleans and could not even cover as 6.5-point dogs despite leading 24-3 in the 2nd quarter. This is their first road game in four weeks.
St. Louis (44) at Detroit (-4) – What a terrible game. The Rams have lost 17 straight games and 34 of their last 39 (13-26 ATS). Detroit has just two wins in its last 30 games. Somebody has to be favored here and playing at home it’s the Lions, the first time they’ve been laying points since December 2007. They have won four straight as home chalk (2-1-1 ATS) and are off the bye week. QB Matthew Stafford has been upgraded to probable.
Seattle (46) at Dallas (-9.5) – One big win over Atlanta and all of a sudden the Cowboys look like contenders. WR Miles Austin has exploded for 421 yards receiving the last two weeks. Dallas has covered the last three meetings with Seattle, who is off a bye and expects to have their best CB, Marcus Trufant, back. Unfortunately for Seahawks backers, their team is 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS the last 11 seasons in post-bye week games. They have gone Over in each of the last eight, allowing an average of 30.5 PPG.
Oakland (41.5) at San Diego (-16.5) – The public is winning big this NFL season, so the oddsmakers are really daring you here to take the Chargers, who are 16.5-point favorites. San Diego is on a 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS run at home vs the Raiders. They have beaten the Silver and Black 12 straight times overall, covering 10 of those games. Prior to the Monday night loss to Denver, they were on a 5-0 SU/ATS run as divisional hosts. Unbelievably, the Raiders are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in pre-bye week games. If you’re wondering why Oakland has not benched QB Russell, it’s because the backup is Bruce Gradkowski.
Jacksonville (45) at Tennessee (-3) – What a mess the Titans have become! Since starting the season 10-0 SU last year, they have lost 10 of their last 13 games, including the last two by a combined score of 90-9 and the last three by 127-26! At the behest of owner Bud Adams, the team goes back to Vince Young at QB. Incredibly, despite five straight ATS losses, they are favored by three at home over a Jacksonville team that beat them 37-17 four weeks ago. The Titans are 16-4 ATS as home chalk of three points or less.
Carolina (41) at Arizona (-10) – This is a playoff rematch from last year, which started the downward slide for the Panthers. In that game, Carolina QB Delhomme was intercepted six times. He has not stopped turning the ball over since, tossing an NFL leading 13 interceptions this year. One of the team’s best defensive players, LB Thomas Davis, may be out here. Arizona has scored 28 or more points in 12 of its last 15 home games, although they are just 1-2 SU/ATS in Glendale this year. Carolina outgained Buffalo 425-167 in a 20-9 loss last week.
NY Giants (pick) at Philadelphia (44) – This line has moved significantly in favor of the visitors, all the way down to a Pick in some shops. Perhaps that’s because the underdog is on a 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS run in this rivalry. Even with a humiliating loss to the Saints two weeks ago, the G-Men are 18-4 ATS L22 road games. They are also 10-2 ATS L12 as an underdog and have revenge from a 23-11 home playoff loss last January (we had Eagles as a “VEGAS ICON” that day!) In fact, the home team lost all three meetings last year.
Atlanta at New Orleans (-10) – The Saints are on fire, averaging just under 40 PPG (scored 45 or more four times) and are 6-0 ATS this season after a huge comeback win over the Dolphins last week. That’s why we find them as double-digit favorites over a Falcons team that comes off a 37-21 loss at Dallas last week. Atlanta is on a 0-4 SU/ATS run in division road games. The underdog has cashed 13 of the past 17 meetings in this rivalry. This is Atlanta’s fourth road game in five weeks and New Orleans is on an 8-1 ATS run at home.
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