Oakland (42.5) at Houston (-8.5) – The Texans have been a difficult team to figure out in ’09, with both losses coming as home favorites and the lone win coming as a road underdog. Meanwhile, after a brief two-week glimmer of hope, the Raiders are back to their horrific ways. Last week’s 23-3 home loss to Denver was further proof that JaMarcus Russell is not an NFL-ready QB, and it also snapped a four-game ATS win streak, the franchise’s longest since ’02. Oakland’s only win thus far came in a game they were outgained 409-168. This has been a bizarre head-to-head series with the underdog winning and covering all four meetings.

Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville (41.5) – The Titans have already lost as many games this regular season as they did all of last regular season, yet find themselves a road favorite for this division game with Jacksonville. They have lost five games in a row overall (1-4 ATS) and three straight division games (0-3 ATS). The Jags were fortunate to upend Houston last week, recovering a fumble on the potential game-tying TD in the waning minutes for their first win of the year. It would be tough to see Tennessee start 0-4 SU as they are 8-4 SU/ATS at Jacksonville since 1998 and the Jaguars are 2-7 SU and 1-8 their last nine as hosts.

Baltimore (44) at New England (-2) – This is the best game on the AFC slate in Week 4 with the three-time Super Bowl Champions hosting the team that looks like the conference’s best through the first three weeks. The Ravens have covered all three games this season and are now 17-5 ATS under HC John Harbaugh. They have outscored 2009 opponents by an average of 16.7 PPG, covering two double-digit spreads. New England just made a statement at home, knocking off the previously unbeaten Falcons, and resembled the Patriots of old in the 2nd half, outscoring Atlanta 13-0 after the break. They have beaten Baltimore four straight times.

Cincinnati (-6) at Cleveland (38) – We could certainly make the case for the Browns being the NFL’s worst team as they have been outscored by 25.3 PPG in three SU/ATS losses. They are now 0-8-1 ATS during a nine-game losing streak that dates back to 2008 and have scored just 32 points in four home games during that stretch. Incredibly, the Cleveland offense has scored just ONE offensive TD since Week 11 of last season, using four different QB’s. HC Mangini named Derek Anderson as the starter on Wednesday, despite the fact that Anderson threw three second half interceptions in relief of Brady Quinn last week. The Bengals are a fluke play away from 3-0 and are now being talked about as a potential sleeper in the AFC. They are looking for BB road wins for the first time since ’06.

NY Giants (-9) at Kansas City (42) – What looks like the biggest mismatch on paper in Week 4 could be a potential trap spot for the G-Men. There is a very real possibility they could be 5-0 heading into a road date with New Orleans in Week 6 (they play Oakland next week), but they must fight off taking the 0-3 Chiefs too lightly. This will be the Giants 1st visit to Arrowhead in 14 seasons. That being said, they have covered 17 of their last 20 road games. Last week’s shutout was the franchise’s first since 2005 and first on the road since 1983! Over the last 21 games, Kansas City actually has the same record as the Lions (2-19 SU).

Detroit (39) at Chicago (-10) – The streak is finally over in the Motor City as the Lions won for the first time in 20 games last week, upsetting Washington at home, 17-14, as 9.5-point home dogs. It’s been awhile since this trend was applicable, but Detroit is 1-9 ATS on the road off a SU win as a home dog. Now they question is: can the Lions win two straight? Ironically, the franchise’s last road win came here in Chicago, 16-7, back in the seventh game of the ’07 season. They have not won BB games since a three-game win streak that was sandwiched around that victory. The oddsmakers certainly do not like the Lions chances, opening them as 12-point underdogs here, but note that Chicago is just 1-7 ATS as DD chalk. The Bears had failed to cover seven-straight pre-bye week games before a 48-41 home win over Minnesota last year.

Tampa Bay (37) at Washington (-7.5) – On paper, this looks like a horrific game for fans of offense. Tampa Bay has scored just 41 points in three games while Washington is one point worse at 40. Totals bettors will want to know that the Redskins have gone Under eight straight times when favored. As bad as the Bucs have looked, it is difficult to imagine Washington being favored by nearly a touchdown against anyone. In their last 11 games, they have scored 20 or more points just once. After losing in Detroit last week, Redskins HC Jim Zorn’s job would be in major jeopardy were he to lose here. The Bucs have made a QB change, unseating Byron Leftwich for Josh Johnson. Tampa Bay has lost seven straight, dating back to last year, and the team has a challenging October schedule on tap.

Seattle (44) at Indianapolis (-10.5) – The Colts played their best game of ’09 Sunday night in Arizona and don’t look now, but Peyton Manning and company are one of seven remaining unbeatens. Seattle has lost two straight after winning its opener. The Seahawks have gone just 2-10 SU and 2-9-1 ATS on the non-conference road since 2002. They are also just 19-44 ATS in the month of October. Off BB road wins on national TV, Indy already has a two-game lead in the AFC South. They are 10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS when hosting NFC opponents. The team’s 122 yards rushing last week was the most they’ve had in game since October 28, 2007.

NY Jets (45) at New Orleans (-7) – This is the marquee game on the Week 4 schedule and the only battle of 3-0 teams. You might be surprised to see the unbeaten Jets come in as a touchdown underdog, but take note that they were outgained by nearly a 3:1 margin over the final three quarters by the Titans last week and benefited from two Tennessee turnovers on special teams. Mark Sanchez is the first rookie QB in NFL history to start a season 3-0 SU. The Saints have scored 23 or more points in 13 straight games (40 PPG this year), but did it with defense last week, holding the Bills to just seven points. Lost in the team’s great start is a newfound ability to run the ball as New Orleans is averaging 170+ yards per game on the ground through three games.

Buffalo (-1) at Miami (37) – While the Jets and Patriots grab the headlines in the AFC East, the loser of this game is in major trouble. In fact, the Dolphins may have already sunk with a 0-3 start and they have lost starting QB Chad Pennington for the year. Chad Henne (Michigan) starts here. Miami swept Buffalo, SU and ATS, last year, but are on a 3-14 ATS run as divisional hosts since 2003. The Bills are 7-3 ATS on the division road. Monitor the Terrell Owens situation as the malcontent WR did not have a catch last week for the first time in 185 games, the 3rd longest such streak in NFL history.

St. Louis (37) at San Francisco (-9.5) – Well, the Rams are improving week by week, but their 24 points scored are a league worst and now it appears that QB Marc Bulger will be lost for extended time. This is a notoriously slow starting team with a 1-10 ATS mark the first month of the season the past three years. The Niners come off a crushing defeat in Minnesota, losing on the game’s final play. San Francisco has dominated this NFC West rivalry since 1992, going 22-10 ATS. St. Louis has lost nine straight division games by an average of 17.1 PPG, but their last win NFC West win did come here, 13-9, back in 2007. This is the most points the 49ers have been favored by since Week 14 of the 2003 season. They have only been favored 14 times since that game, a 50-14 win over Arizona.

Dallas (-3) at Denver (42.5) – The Broncos are considered the league’s biggest surprise 3-0 team, but have outscored their previous two opponents by a whopping 50-9 margin. This week, they are one of three unbeatens that will be getting points. This is Dallas’ first visit to Mile High since 1998. While the Cowboys are 1-8 ATS as road dogs, they are also 7-1 ATS as road favorites of seven points or less. Denver has covered just one of its previous nine home games. The last five meetings between the teams have all gone Over the total.

San Diego (43) at Pittsburgh (-6.5) – Bettors, especially those who had the Steelers, will surely remember last year’s 11-10 SU win/ATS loss when an apparent last second defensive TD was incorrectly nullified costing Pittsburgh the cover. Already at 1-2, this looks like one of those “must-win” games for the home team and the oddsmakers and the public know it, with the line already up to -6.5 by mid week. Pittsburgh has won seven straight home games while going 5-2 ATS. Even worse for San Diego is that home teams are 5-1 SU/6-0 ATS the last six years in pre-Charger bye week games. Norv Turner is 17-5 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points as coach of San Diego.

Green Bay (45.5) at Minnesota (-3.5) – You may have heard this game will be on ESPN Monday Night as Brett Favre hosts his former team. This could be the most watched football game ever on cable, meaning that there will be a lot of public money. Minnesota has won five straight division home games, but is just 2-3 ATS in those games. They are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games overall and the underdog in this rivalry is on a 13-3 ATS run at the Metrodome.

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