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The ACC: Celebrating Mediocrity, One Week at a Time
by Lenny Del Genio

Our three-plus decades on “both sides of the counter” tell us that the Atlantic Coast Conference is going to be very difficult to handicap this year. The league has no great teams, no clear-cut favorite, but at the same time does have a bevy of good/decent teams. Last year, the ACC sent a record 10 teams to bowl games (only Duke and Virginia missed out). This year, they could match that.

When the conference was expanded to 12 teams and two divisions, the ACC was supposed to take its place right alongside the SEC and the Big 12 as one of the preeminent leagues in all of College Football. Miami FL and Virginia Tech, then Boston College, all coming over from the Big East, was supposed to pay huge dividends, but quite simply that has not happened although both the Hokies and the Eagles have won ACC titles since coming over. Miami has been somewhat of a flop, going just .500 over the last three seasons. However, that could change this season.

The one similarity the ACC does share with the Big 12 is that the quality of play is not even between the two divisions. Like the South over the North in the Big 12, the Coastal Division clearly holds a competitive advantage over its Atlantic counterparts in the ACC. With Miami’s 33-17 thrashing of Georgia Tech still fresh in our minds (we cashed the ‘Canes as a CFB Oddsmaker Mismatch), we thought now would be the perfect time to start delving into some ACC Football, all for your benefit!

Atlantic Division

All three top contenders in the Atlantic have already suffered a loss, making this race wide open. Believe it or not, but coming into the year we had pegged NC State as the most likely to win this division. After all, in 2008, freshman QB and 1st team All-Conference Russell Wilson led the team to eight straight covers to end the season. However, the Wolfpack began the season by scoring just three points at home in an outright loss to South Carolina.

We won’t hear much from Tom O’ Brien’s team in the coming weeks as this Saturday they play a second straight FCS opponent (Gardner-Webb). They join league “bottom-feeders” Maryland, Duke and Virginia as the only teams in the conference not to play a league game in the month of September, so the jury is still out on NC State. They do have a non-conference shot at redemption when they host Pitt on 9/26.

The other two main contenders, Clemson and Florida State, each lost their ACC openers. Florida State lost outright at home, 38-34, to Miami (FL) on Labor Day. That was followed up with an uninspired 10-pt win over FCS Jacksonville State last Saturday. Now the Seminoles must travel to BYU in a game where they will be seven-point underdogs. Could be a 1-2 start for Bobby Bowden and they still have five ACC road games to come! Don’t forget they finish with Florida! Looks like another .500ish season in Tallahassee

Clemson is overrated every year and always gets outcoached. They opened league play by falling behind 24-0 at Georgia Tech before rallying for the cover (L 27-30, +5). They’ll host BC on Saturday, then welcome in BCS busting hopeful TCU in a big non-conference tilt the following week. Could be some value on the Tigers in that game (15-1 SU hosting non-ACC opponents). They only have three more league road games left and get to host Florida State on 11/7. Maybe this is the year for Clemson?

We don’t think much of the other three teams in the Atlantic. Boston College is going to be really bad. They have no QB and a 3rd different head coach in five seasons. Wake Forest has senior signal caller in Riley Skinner, but already lost at home to Baylor and must replace their top five tacklers from last year’s defensive unit. Maryland is RB Da’Rel Scott and not much else.

Coastal Division

Immediately disregard Duke and Virginia as contenders, although we’ll talk more about them as the season progresses if we ever find some line value in a particular matchup.

The Coastal is a four team race with Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech and North Carolina. Next Saturday, we have the Hokies hosting the Hurricanes, which will determine the early favorite to win the entire conference.

The ACC isn’t the only conference celebrating mediocrity. Next week, we’ll discuss Conference USA, which is even more rife with “even stephen” teams. In two weeks, we’ll check back in with the ACC to see how things are progressing.

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